FX.co ★ XAU/USD (GOLD)

XAU/USD Just hours before the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation indicator, gold (XAU/USD) is plunging below $4,200, and the three most recent FXStreet analysts are unable to agree on the implications of the data for the precious metal. A third expert contends that the Arc cycle has not yet developed a directional bias, suggesting the next significant move might go either way, while two analysts anticipate technical resistance limiting any rebound. Prior to the PCE release, Mehta believes that technical resistance has capped gold. "Gold is struggling to capitalize on Tuesday's late rebound, with oil prices seeing a renewed uptick after Axios reports that Qatar-mediated diplomatic talks between the United States (US) and Iran yielded little progress," she said. Her technical assessment is negative: Gold trades below all key SMAs—the 21-day at $4,320, the 50-day at $4,322, the 100-day at $4,287, and the 200-day at $4,538—while the RSI at 39 shows persistent but not excessive bearish momentum. Above the dense SMA cluster at $4,320–$4,323, immediate resistance on the upside is in line with a declining trend line at $4,312. A change in Fed expectations is also noted by Mehta: "Markets are now pricing in a 47% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, down sharply from just over 70% seen a day ago," following New York Fed President John Williams' statement that policymakers might only need to implement one more hike this year to bring inflation back under control.