Technical Analysis 07 October 2026 AUD/USD H-1 The AUD/USD 1-hour chart exhibits a corrective pull-down following a steady multi-day recovery that capped near 0.69800–0.69950. Price action has crossed under its dynamic 50-period moving average, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Traders are now watching closely for further signs of bearish continuation, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels established earlier in the week. and is now testing the key horizontal decision line at 0.69520, establishing a crucial pivotal threshold. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * Pullback to Pivot: After rising from October 1 lows near 0.69095, AUD/USD formed higher lows before finding seller resistance under 0.69950. The current downward move is retesting structural support at 0.69520. * Horizontal Pivot Baseline: The horizontal line at 0.69520 acts as the immediate decision axis. Holding above this baseline keeps the recovery structure intact, whereas a confirmed H1 breakdown opens the gate toward 0.69380. * Dynamic Resistance: The 50-period moving average (red line) has turned slightly downward above price, providing dynamic resistance near 0.69665. 2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Currently reads 32.38, approaching the oversold threshold (30.00), which indicates strong short-term bearish pressure while signaling potential for a stabilization bounce. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits negative at -0.000505 below its signal line (-0.000175). The Bears Power indicator reads -0.001374, confirming dominant downside momentum in the short term. 3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bullish Defense (Primary Support Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bullish rejection pattern (e.g., pin bar or engulfing candle) closing cleanly back above 0.69580. * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 0.69610 (or Buy Limit on a retest of 0.69520). * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69300 (placed safely below local structure support at 0.69380). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69800 (retest of local swing high / dynamic MA resistance). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.69950 (major structural resistance target). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.3 (TP2) Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (Contrarian Breakdown Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly below 0.69480 (confirming a loss of the horizontal baseline). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 0.69450. * Stop Loss (SL): 0.69750 (placed above dynamic moving average resistance). * Take Profit (TP1): 0.69200 (intermediate structural support). * Take Profit (TP2): 0.69095 (retest of major October low floor). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2) Execution Summary Focus closely on how the current hourly candle closes relative to 0.69520. Reclaiming 0.69580 supports a long entry targeting 0.69800 and 0.69950, while an H1 breakdown below 0.69480 opens downside targets toward 0.69200 and 0.69095.
