FX.co ★ GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fell again on Wednesday, continuing its decline without any clear positive factors directly linked to the domestic situation in the UK. Compared to the more volatile and unstable euro, the pound has traded relatively sideways in recent weeks, indicating some resilience and potential stability. Economic data released on Wednesday, including the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, was largely anticipated by market participants, but the GBP/USD pair showed little immediate reaction that evening – a muted response in line with market expectations. Market analysts understand that Federal Reserve meeting minutes are essentially official administrative records, not breaking news, and are typically published three weeks after the monetary policy meeting, thus diminishing their immediate impact. During those three weeks, at least three significant US economic reports were released, which noticeably eased the hawkish economic outlook and shifted market sentiment. Since this new information cannot be included in historical records like the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, its significance in today's markets is limited, once again leaving market participants puzzled by the apparent strength of the dollar—a frustrating phenomenon traders have grown accustomed to over the past month. Turning to the intraday dynamics on the five-minute timeframe, Wednesday's trading session presented a clear selling opportunity: the price decisively broke below the 1.3259-1.3267 support level during the Asian session and then gradually declined for the remainder of the day. Experienced traders seized this opportunity to open short positions at the European market open, as the price had not yet moved far from the initial signal point. Those who capitalized on this opportunity could have secured a profit of approximately 40 basis points by the end of the day. Looking ahead to Thursday's trading strategy, the chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has consolidated into a downtrend, which has developed into a strong and sustained bearish trend. Despite the Federal Reserve signaling continued monetary tightening, which has strengthened the dollar, the market's continued strong buying of the dollar three weeks later has raised significant doubts. Analysts are therefore highly questioning whether the Fed's policy alone can explain the dollar's sustained strength, arguing that current price movements are largely irrational, driven by stagnation and speculation. For Thursday's trading, if the price manages to hold below the 1.3175-1.3180 resistance level, both novice and experienced traders should consider opening short positions in the 1.3096-1.3107 range. Conversely, if the price rebounds strongly from the 1.3175-1.3180 area, traders could consider opening long positions with a target price between 1.3259 and 1.3267.