FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to face selling pressure, falling below $83,000 on Thursday and down more than 4% this week, driven by weakening institutional demand and worsening macroeconomic challenges. The institutional fund flows reflect a significant shift in market sentiment. Data from SoSoValue shows that US-based Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows exceeding $487 million on Wednesday, marking the highest daily redemption rate since late June. If this strong redemption trend continues in subsequent trading days, the decline in institutional buying power could lead to a deeper structural adjustment for Bitcoin. Blockchain indicators reinforce the cautious short-term outlook. A Lookonchain tracking report shows that digital wallets linked to the US government transferred nearly $566 million in assets, including 4,632 Bitcoin, 119 million USDT, and 750 WBTC, primarily to Coinbase Prime custody accounts, raising concerns about a potential oversupply in the market. Adding to the potential selling pressure are signs of renewed activity from long-dormant large investors. A recent transaction involving 4,500 Bitcoin is a case in point; the sudden transfer of these cryptocurrencies after more than four years of inactivity has raised concerns about the deposits of exchanges and the possibility of liquidation. On the macroeconomic front, the strengthening dollar and rapidly rising US Treasury yields have significantly constrained Bitcoin's upward momentum, reducing investor demand for high-risk, low-yielding assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a high of 102.53 earlier this week, its highest level since early April 2025, before retreating to around 102.36. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note surged to nearly 5.30%, its highest level in two decades. These high bond yields have increased the appeal of traditional fixed-income instruments, drawing funds away from speculative markets. Furthermore, the official minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting confirmed that the committee voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, with most policymakers indicating that another rate hike before the end of the year remains appropriate to combat persistent global inflation. This hawkish stance from the central bank, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the potential for further escalation, continues to support the dollar as a safe haven, while simultaneously dampening overall risk appetite in global financial markets. From a technical analysis perspective, after Bitcoin failed to hold its recent local high near $87,000, it is currently trading around $82,926, having ultimately closed below the key support level of $85,000. Despite this localized weakness, the overall technical structure remains positive, with the spot price continuing to hold above a set of moving averages—including the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs)—between $79,700 and $75,200. Momentum indicators suggest continued consolidation rather than a full-blown structural breakdown; the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near its neutral level of 51, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) chart shows a slight decline, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $85,000, and a decisive break above this level at today's close is needed to restart the technical trajectory towards the recent high of $87,000. Conversely, the initial support level for the downside is near the 50-day moving average at $79,704, followed by the 100-day moving average at $75,857 and the 200-day moving average at $75,242, which together form a strong structural demand zone preventing further declines to the secondary support levels at $66,500 and $62,300.