Technical Analysis 13 October 2026 EUR/USD H-1 The EUR/USD 1-hour chart displays a minor relief bounce following a drop to the 1.11580 support floor. Price action is pushing back up toward its dynamic 50-period Moving Average and testing the horizontal decision baseline near 1.11692, establishing a crucial inflection zone for short-term direction. 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis * Support Defense & Pullback: After sliding from lower highs near 1.12180, EUR/USD found short-term buying liquidity at 1.11580, triggering a slight recovery back toward the central pivot baseline at 1.11692. * Horizontal Pivot Baseline: The horizontal line at 1.11692 represents former support turned immediate resistance. Reclaiming this level on an hourly basis is essential for bulls to target higher structural boundaries, while a failure to hold keeps the pair under selling pressure. * Moving Average Dynamic: The 50-period moving average (red line) is sloping downward above current price action around 1.11880, serving as dynamic overhead resistance. 2. Technical Indicators * RSI (14): Reads 45.35, rebounding out of oversold territory toward the neutral 50 line, indicating diminishing downside momentum during this current retracement phase. * MACD & Bears Indicator: The MACD histogram sits at -0.001012 above its signal line (-0.001209), displaying a minor bullish convergence in negative territory. The Bears Power indicator reads -0.000523, confirming fading bearish strength as sellers take a breather. 3. Point-to-Point Trade Setup Scenario A: Bullish Recovery (Primary Relief Setup) * Trigger: An H1 candle close cleanly above 1.11750 (confirming a hold over the horizontal pivot). * Entry Point: Buy Market / Buy Stop at 1.11780 (or Buy Limit on a pullback to 1.11690). * Stop Loss (SL): 1.11400 (placed safely below recent structure support at 1.11580). * Take Profit (TP1): 1.12180 (retest of dynamic 50-MA / intermediate swing high). * Take Profit (TP2): 1.12480 (major structural resistance target). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2) Scenario B: Bearish Rejection (Contrarian Breakdown Setup) * Trigger: An H1 bearish rejection pattern closing cleanly below 1.11580 (breaking recent swing low support). * Entry Point: Sell Market / Sell Stop at 1.11550. * Stop Loss (SL): 1.11900 (placed above dynamic moving average resistance). * Take Profit (TP1): 1.11200 (intermediate support floor). * Take Profit (TP2): 1.10900 (extended downside projection). * Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.6 (TP1) / ~1:2.4 (TP2) Execution Summary Focus closely on how the hourly candle closes relative to 1.11692. A verified move above 1.11750 opens path toward 1.12180 and 1.12480, whereas a drop below 1.11580 re-engages downside pressure toward lower support targets.
