FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) traded slightly lower for the third consecutive session, fluctuating below $4,150 during Wednesday's European trading session, as global financial markets awaited key US macroeconomic data. Market focus remained on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated speech at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday. Near-term expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continued to favor a rate hike, with money market instruments indicating a near 90% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December, following hawkish comments from central bank officials. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices to multi-week highs, reigniting concerns about energy-driven inflation, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and keeping benchmark US Treasury yields elevated—a persistent structural headwind for the non-yielding precious metal. The significantly escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have boosted the appeal of international assets as safe havens. The military conflict between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi group in Yemen continues to intensify, with reports of retaliatory attacks on Houthi energy storage facilities and fuel reserves following an earlier attack on Riyadh's commercial airport. At the same time, maritime tensions between Washington and Tehran have escalated, with US Central Command strongly rejecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy's claim of operational control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and insisting that international shipping lanes remain open and secure. While these developments maintained safe-haven buying opportunities and prevented further declines in gold prices, the dollar's two-day retreat from its 18-month high has only slightly eased concerns. Therefore, institutional traders remain hesitant to take strong long positions until a decisive breakout occurs from the multi-week trading range between the upper technical barrier and the key lower support line. From a technical chart perspective XAU/USD pair's price action within a defined range reflects a classic bearish consolidation structure following the initial decline from its August highs. Spot prices continue to find temporary support above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,115, which represents a significant short-term bottom to prevent further selling. Technical momentum indicators point to a quiet market environment: the MACD line remains in negative territory but is contracting slightly, suggesting weakening downward momentum, while the RSI is approaching the neutral 50 level. On the upside, immediate technical resistance lies at the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart at $4193, followed by the upper boundary of the consolidation channel near $4215-$4220, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4238. Upper Fibonacci supply zones have been identified at $4325 (50.0%), $4412 (38.2%), and $4519 (23.6%). Conversely, if the four-hour close remains below the support level at $4115, the current consolidation phase will fail, exposing a key low near $3957.83, which could be retested.