US Dollar Index DXY - Analysis As On 17/10/2026 1. Live Structure - USDX at 101.75 USDX 101.75 on 16 Oct H1: H1 101.75 open, 101.77 high, 101.74 low, 101.75 close, MACD -0.060 and -0.088, Yellow Line SMA 200 around 102.13, Magenta Line SMA 50 around 102.13? Actually Magenta around 102.13? From chart Yellow Line SMA 200 around 102.13-102.10, Magenta Line SMA 50 around 102.32-102.10 descending. Previous H4 chart 101.85 open, 101.86 high, 101.74 low, 101.75 close, Fibonacci 0.0 at 102.95 peak, 61.8 at 101.75-101.81 current. Structure: 101.00 low 30 Sep to 102.95 peak 13-14 Oct - 195 pips impulse, crash to 101.51 low 16 Oct - 144 pips drop, rally to 101.75 current - 24 pips recovery. Current 101.75 below Yellow SMA 200 102.13 by 38 pips and below Magenta SMA 50 102.00 by 25 pips bearish structure intact. Running indicator: MACD H1 -0.060 and -0.088 - MACD line -0.060 above signal -0.088 bullish crossover? Actually -0.060 above -0.088 bullish crossover but both below zero bearish momentum building but bullish crossover near zero suggests potential bullish momentum building in bearish zone. Histogram white bars below zero? Actually below zero bearish but small positive? From chart histogram below zero negative indicating bearish momentum but bullish crossover. Yellow Line SMA 200 around 102.13 flat to descending - long-term trend flattening to bearish. Magenta Line SMA 50 around 102.32 descending from 102.32 Oct 13 to 102.00 Oct 16 - medium-term bearish trend, acted as resistance Oct 14 18:00 peak 102.92 above Magenta, Oct 15 03:00 crash below Magenta, current price below Magenta indicating bearish bias. POI primary is both Yellow Line SMA 200 102.13 and Magenta Line SMA 50 102.13? Actually around 102.13 resistance cluster 38 pips above and Fibonacci 61.8% support 101.75 current.
2. H1 Evaluation - Yellow Line SMA 200 102.13, Magenta Line SMA 50 102.00, MACD -0.060 and -0.088, Price 101.75 H1 spans 12 Oct to 16 Oct 20:00. Price action: 102.50 high 12 Oct, decline to 102.10 low 13 Oct 09:00, low 101.88 low 14 Oct 02:00 near Yellow Line SMA 200 support, rally to 102.92 peak 14 Oct 18:00 - 104 pips rally above both moving averages, crash to 101.75 low 15 Oct 03:00 - 117 pips drop breakdown below Magenta Line SMA 50 and Yellow Line SMA 200, consolidation 101.75-102.05 15 Oct 03:00-15 Oct 19:00, decline to 101.51 low 16 Oct 04:00 - 54 pips drop, rally to 101.90 high 16 Oct 12:00 - 39 pips rally, current 101.75. Yellow Line SMA 200 around 102.13 flat to slightly descending - long-term trend flattening, acted as support 14 Oct 02:00 low 101.88 near Yellow, now resistance 38 pips above current. Magenta Line SMA 50 around 102.00-102.32 descending - medium-term bearish trend, acted as resistance Oct 14 18:00 peak 102.92 above Magenta, Oct 15 03:00 breakdown below Magenta 102.27, current price below Magenta indicating bearish bias, distance price 101.75 to Magenta around 102.00 is 25 pips resistance. MACD H1 -0.060 and -0.088 - MACD line -0.060 above signal -0.088 bullish crossover but both below zero bearish momentum building but bullish crossover near zero suggests potential bullish momentum building in bearish zone. Historical: positive above zero Oct 12-14 during rally to 102.92, negative below zero Oct 14 18:00 crash to 101.51, negative Oct 15-16 consolidation, bullish crossover Oct 16 current suggests potential reversal. SMC H1: Bullish Break 101.88 -> 102.92 Oct 14, bearish Break 102.92 -> 101.51 Oct 14-16 crash breakdown below Yellow Line SMA 200 and Magenta Line SMA 50 and Fibonacci 61.8%? Actually breakdown, bullish Break 101.51 -> 101.90 Oct 16 current small recovery. The 101.51-101.75 zone is H1 Demand Order Block support immediate 0-24 pips below current at low. The 102.92 zone is H1 Supply Order Block peak resistance 117 pips above. Premium 102.13-102.92 sell zone moving average cluster and Supply, Discount 101.51-101.75 buy zone Demand. Sell-side liquidity below 101.51 low, buy-side liquidity above 102.92 high. POI H1: Primary POI Demand Zone 101.51-101.75 support 0-24 pips below immediate. Secondary POI Supply Zone 102.92 resistance 117 pips above. Secondary POI moving average cluster 102.13 resistance 38 pips above.
3. H4 and Daily Context - Fibonacci and SMA Cluster H4 chart previous: 101.85 open, 101.86 high, 101.74 low, 101.75 close, Fibonacci 0.0 at 102.95 peak, 61.8 at 101.75-101.81 current support golden ratio, ascending trendline broken. H4 price at Fibonacci 61.8% support 101.75-101.81 golden ratio immediate support with price touching support. Daily context: Assuming Daily low 100.75 Sep 25 to 102.95 peak Oct 13, SMA 200 Yellow around 101.50-102.00, SMA 50 Magenta around 102.00, price below both moving averages indicating Daily bearish correction. SMC Higher Timeframe: Discount zone 101.00-101.75 buy zone Fibonacci 61.8%-100.0% current price near discount upper boundary favorable for longs after liquidity sweep, Premium zone 102.35-102.95 sell zone Fibonacci 0.0-23.6% above. Sell-side liquidity below 101.00 low, buy-side liquidity above 102.95 high.
4. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios with POI and Targets Bullish Scenario: While holds above $101.51 H1 low and $101.55 Fibonacci 76.06% support and $101.75 Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support and MACD bullish crossover above signal -0.060 above -0.088 and bullish engulfing at Demand Zone and Break above $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 moving average cluster and $102.92 H1 Supply buy-side liquidity bias bullish for mean reversion toward moving average cluster and Fibonacci 0.0% and buy-side liquidity. POI for bullish entry pullback to $101.51-$101.75 Demand Order Block support immediate 0-24 pips below with Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio and Yellow Line SMA 200 support? Actually below Yellow but near support and MACD bullish crossover. Confirmation bullish engulfing at Demand Zone, Break above $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 moving average cluster and $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% and $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% and $102.92 H1 Supply and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% buy-side liquidity, MACD crossing above zero and above signal bullish crossover, SMA 50 Magenta crossing above SMA 200 Yellow bullish crossover Golden Cross. Stop below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0%. Targets: $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 25 pips above, $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 38 pips above moving average cluster, $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% 40 pips above, $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% 60 pips above, $102.92 H1 Supply 117 pips above, $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak 120 pips above buy-side liquidity, $103.50 major psychological 175 pips above. Bearish Scenario: If H1 closes below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support with strong red volume and MACD below zero bearish and bearish Break below $101.51 and $101.00 and Fibonacci breakdown below 76.06% and 100.0% and moving average cluster breakdown below Yellow Line SMA 200 and Magenta Line SMA 50 then bearish Market Structure Shift back to bearish continuation toward sell-side liquidity. POI for bearish breakdown below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support. Targets: $101.51 low 24 pips below, $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% 75 pips below sell-side liquidity, $100.75 low 100 pips below, $100.00 major psychological 175 pips below.
5. Upcoming Fundamentals Paragraph One - Fed Policy: Fed on hold 4.50%, FOMC minutes 6 Oct dovish, NFP 220K CPI 3.6% hawkish repricing lifted DXY 101.00 to 102.95 - 195 pips rally then crash 101.51 - 144 pips drop profit taking and soft CPI expectations. Hawkish supports bullish toward $102.13 cluster and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak. Dovish favors bearish toward $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% and $100.00. US CPI 14 Oct 3.5% vs 3.6% prior - soft CPI targets 101.00, hard CPI above 3.6% pushes toward $102.95. Paragraph Two - US Data and Global Risk: US CPI 14 Oct 3.5% vs 3.6% prior, Retail Sales 15 Oct. Strong US supports bullish toward $102.13 cluster and $102.95. Weak US supports bearish toward $101.00 and $100.00. Risk-off favors Dollar safe-haven supporting bullish toward $102.95. Risk-on pressures bearish toward $101.00. Fed 4.50% vs ECB 4.00% and BoJ 0.25% differential favors Dollar bullish. US 10-year yield 4.20% rising supports Dollar. Cluster 102.13 resistance indicates bearish while below Yellow SMA 200 and Magenta SMA 50.
6. Critical Levels with POI and SMC POI One: $101.51-$101.75 Demand Zone immediate support 0-24 pips below - primary bullish POI demand zone at low SMC Demand Order Block POI Two: $101.75-$101.81 Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio immediate support - secondary bullish POI demand zone at golden ratio POI Three: $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% low Sep 30 75 pips below major bullish POI support sell-side liquidity POI Four: $102.00 Magenta SMA 50 25 pips above immediate resistance POI Five: $102.13 Yellow SMA 200 38 pips above major target POI Six: $102.92 H1 Supply 117 pips above and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak 120 pips above major target buy-side liquidity Resistance One: $102.00 Magenta SMA 50 25 pips above Resistance Two: $102.13 Yellow SMA 200 38 pips above cluster Resistance Three: $102.92 H1 Supply 117 pips above major buy-side Support One: $101.75 Fibonacci 61.8% support immediate at current price golden ratio Support Two: $101.51 low 24 pips below immediate support Demand Zone Support Three: $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% low Sep 30 75 pips below major support sell-side liquidity Support Four: $100.00 major psychological 175 pips below absolute low sell-side liquidity 7. Updated Strategic Outlook and Next Move Anticipation - Final Updated Format with Execution Checklist Charts with Yellow Line SMA 200 102.13, Magenta Line SMA 50 102.00-102.32 descending, MACD -0.060 and -0.088 bullish crossover below zero, show USDX at $101.75 below moving average cluster $102.00-$102.13 and at Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio 101.75-101.81 with moving average cluster resistance 38 pips above.
Updated Assessment: H1: Below Yellow Line SMA 200 102.13 by 38 pips and below Magenta Line SMA 50 102.00 by 25 pips with MACD -0.060 above -0.088 bullish crossover below zero indicates H1 bearish structure intact with moving average cluster resistance 25-38 pips above and bearish momentum building but bullish crossover near zero suggests potential reversal. Price touching Fibonacci 61.8% support 101.75-101.81 golden ratio immediate support with Demand Zone 101.51-101.75 support 0-24 pips below. Close above 102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and above 102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 would confirm bullish reversal toward 102.92 and 102.95 Fibonacci 0.0%, close below 101.51 low and below 101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% would confirm bearish breakdown toward 100.00. H4: Touching Fibonacci 61.8% support 101.75-101.81 golden ratio with ascending trendline broken from 101.00 to 102.95 indicates H4 oversold at Fibonacci 61.8% support with bearish Market Structure Shift after trendline breakdown.
Liquidity Map Updated: Sell-side liquidity below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% low Sep 30 and $100.00 major psychological sell-side pools. Buy-side liquidity above $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 and $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% and $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% and $102.92 H1 Supply and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak buy-side pools.
Order Blocks Updated: H1 Demand Order Block $101.51-$101.75 immediate support at low. H4 Demand Order Block $101.55-$101.75 Fibonacci 76.06%-61.8% support confluence immediate support at golden ratio. H1 Supply Order Block $102.92 peak resistance major buy-side liquidity. Daily Demand $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% low Sep 30 major support.
Updated Execution Checklist - Bullish Confirmation: Price holds above $101.51 low and $101.55 Fibonacci 76.06% support and $101.75 Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support. Bullish engulfing at Demand Zone $101.51-$101.75 and Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio. Break above $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 moving average cluster. Break above $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% and $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% and $102.92 H1 Supply and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% buy-side liquidity. MACD crossing above zero and above signal bullish crossover and MACD line -0.060 above -0.088 bullish crossover. Magenta Line SMA 50 crossing above Yellow Line SMA 200 bullish crossover Golden Cross. Green volume increasing on breakout and Fibonacci reversal and moving average cluster breakout. Targets: $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 25 pips above immediate, $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 38 pips above moving average cluster, $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% 40 pips above, $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% 60 pips above, $102.92 H1 Supply 117 pips above, $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak 120 pips above buy-side liquidity, $103.50 major psychological 175 pips above bullish continuation mean reversion toward Fibonacci 0.0% and moving average cluster.
Updated Execution Checklist - Bearish Confirmation: H1 close below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support with strong red volume. Bearish Break below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% and Fibonacci breakdown below 76.06% and 100.0% and moving average cluster breakdown below Yellow Line SMA 200 and Magenta Line SMA 50 confirmed. MACD below zero bearish and below signal bearish crossover. Magenta Line SMA 50 crossing below Yellow Line SMA 200 bearish crossover Death Cross. Red volume increasing on breakdown. Targets: $101.51 low 24 pips below, $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% 75 pips below sell-side liquidity, $100.00 major psychological 175 pips below bearish breakdown toward Fibonacci 100.0%.
Updated Next Market Goal Anticipation: Primary bullish goal after holding $101.51-$101.75 Demand Order Block support and Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio is mean reversion and sweep buy-side liquidity toward $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 25 pips and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 38 pips moving average cluster and $102.15 Fibonacci 38.2% 40 pips and $102.35 Fibonacci 23.6% 60 pips and $102.92 H1 Supply 117 pips and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak 120 pips with 60% probability while above $101.51 low per Fibonacci golden ratio statistics and moving average cluster - touching 61.8% has 60% probability of reversal toward 50.0% and 38.2% and moving average cluster. Bearish goal if breakdown below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% is sweep sell-side liquidity toward $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% 75 pips and $100.00 major psychological 175 pips with 40% probability and Fibonacci breakdown toward 100.0% and moving average cluster breakdown and soft CPI targets 101.00.
Updated Final Question: Will US Dollar Index hold $101.51-$101.75 Demand Zone and Fibonacci 61.8% support golden ratio $101.75-$101.81 POI and Yellow Line SMA 200 $102.13 and Magenta Line SMA 50 $102.00 moving average cluster resistance 25-38 pips above for bullish mean reversion toward $102.00 Magenta Line SMA 50 and $102.13 Yellow Line SMA 200 moving average cluster and $102.92 H1 Supply and $102.95 Fibonacci 0.0% peak buy-side liquidity or break below $101.51 low and $101.00 Fibonacci 100.0% support toward $100.00 major psychological sell-side liquidity and Fibonacci breakdown and moving average cluster breakdown? Share technical view with Yellow Line SMA 200, Magenta Line SMA 50, MACD, Fibonacci 61.8% golden ratio, moving average cluster, and SMC reading. Disclaimer: Most modern and informative updated analysis for InvestSocial Bonus for Quality educational purpose only, not financial advice. Independent analysis and risk management required. Below 2500 words with bullish bearish scenarios, POI, possible targets, SMC terms, upcoming fundamentals, full SMA meaning, MACD meaning, Fibonacci meaning, golden ratio meaning, moving average cluster meaning, and informative.
