FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Hello crypto folks! BTC/USD continues to decline, so I continue to trade from the short side. As long as the price of Bitcoin is below 83 200–84 000, I expect a return to 80 000. A close below 80 000 opens the way to 76 500. A daily close above 84 000 invalidates the scenario. The Bitcoin trend depends on capital flows into ETFs, central bank rates and the dollar exchange rate. Right now these factors are causing the cryptocurrency to fall. Spot ETFs lost $261 mln in a day, the cumulative October total went negative by $276.2 mln. The average cost basis of ETF holders is about $81 722, meaning the price is sitting right on it. Above the price there is a dense supply zone of long-term holders at $84 000–85 000. Probability of a Fed rate hike -800% US CPI for September rose to 3.7%, PPI to 6.3%. A decline in inflation is not expected, oil is holding around $100. Uorsh's speech on Friday supported Bitcoin; the Fed chair gave no signals on the rate, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.10%. Among the upcoming events of the week I would note the absence of important macro statistics for the US. Also, the Fed is entering a "quiet period" before the meeting on October 27–28, the ECB decides on rates on the 29th.