1 - CAD/JPY Daily 111.711 Main Bearish HTF (Hight Time Frame) Daily closed at 111.711 after recovering from 110.530 low, although main trend remains bearish while price trades below red EMA-100 at 113.065. Yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 now acts as immediate support, which price reclaimed after consolidation near 110.800. RSI at 51.3259 above 50 shows shift from bearish to neutral, while Momentum at 100.6351 just above 100 confirms buying returning. Because August high at 115.605 was swept with 450-pip displacement, HTF structure still shows lower highs since 31 Aug. Premium discount with high 115.605 as 0% and low 110.530 as 100% places equilibrium at 113.067, so current 111.711 sits in discount where longs become valid after sell-side sweep.
2 - H1 111.711 Correction Bullish LTF( Lower Time Frame) H1 closed at 111.711 above yellow EMA-34 at 111.385 and red EMA-100 at 111.305, which confirms bullish correction inside daily bearish trend. Although RSI at 61.5877 approaches 70, it shows no divergence, while Momentum at 100.2990 above 100 validates continuation. When price swept 111.060 low on 15 Oct 15:00 with wick and bullish engulfing to 111.470, it formed market structure shift and change of character. Because EMA-34 crossed above EMA-100 around 15 Oct 19:00, breaker flip signals bullish flow. This leg seeks buy-side at 111.765 minor high and 112.060 major high before daily red EMA resistance caps extension.
3 - M15 111.711 Entry Bullish Momentum M15 closed at 111.711 above yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 and red EMA-100 at 111.490, which aligns with bullish entry momentum after discount accumulation. RSI at 59.1121 below 70 leaves room for upside, while Momentum at 100.0421 above 100 confirms continuation. When price dipped to 111.260 low on 16 Oct 07:45, it created bullish order block demand, then displaced 50 pips to 111.765 high on 16 Oct 19:00. Because green candles covered this range with minimal pullback, bullish fair value gap between 111.380 and 111.540 remains unfilled. Current price near 111.711 needs hold above 111.600 yellow EMA to sustain toward 111.765 and 112.060.
4 - POI Bearish 113.065-115.605 Weekly Supply POI bearish at 113.065-115.605 is last bullish daily candles before displacement on 4 Sep 2026, where large red candle closed below yellow EMA-34 and broke 114.595. Red EMA-100 at 113.065 now acts as dynamic bearish breaker, which previously served as support in August. Because price rejected multiple times near 115.605 high with long wicks on 19-31 Aug, this zone contains unmitigated bearish order block supply and premium imbalance. Current 111.711 is 135 pips below 113.065 and 389 pips below 115.605, so any correction toward 112.570 will face heavy supply. POI remains valid until daily bullish close above 113.065 with mitigation above 115.605.
5 - POI Bullish 110.530-111.100 LTF Demand POI bullish at 110.530-111.100 is last bearish daily and H1 candles before reversal on 10 Sep and 30 Sep, where double bottom with wicks formed at 110.530 and 110.700. Because sell-side liquidity below 110.530 was swept with selling climax and bullish engulfing, this zone now represents high-probability bullish order block demand where institutions absorbed shorts. Yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 and red EMA-100 at 111.305 confluence after displacement to 111.711 confirms breaker support. Current 111.711 is 61 pips above 111.100, so retest of 111.100-110.800 as breaker offers long toward 111.765. Risk must be defined below 110.530 where sell stops rest, invalidating bullish thesis if close breaks below.
6 - Swap 111.600 EMA-34 Breaker Flip Swap at 111.600 yellow EMA-34 shows polarity flip where resistance becomes support after displacement, which occurred on 14 Oct when price closed above EMA-34 after consolidating below since 28 Sep. Although red EMA-100 at 113.065 remains bearish resistance on daily, yellow EMA-34 flipping to support signals LTF shift from bearish to bullish. When H1 EMA-34 crossed above EMA-100 at 111.385 versus 111.305, it confirmed bullish breaker on H1 aligning with daily hold. Because daily price trades 11 pips above yellow EMA-34, pullback toward 111.500-111.385 should be bought while breaker holds. Failure below 111.325 would flip swap back to bearish targeting 110.530.
7 - Sweep Buy Side 115.605 HTF Liquidity Hunt Sweep buy side at 115.605 daily high on 31 Aug occurred with wick to 115.605 and immediate 450-pip displacement to 112.570 on 4 Sep, trapping buyers expecting 116.000 breakout. Because buy stops above previous highs were raided, this sweep represents classic buy-side hunt used as fuel for bearish expansion toward discount. Momentum dropped below 100 at that time, while RSI peaked near 78 overbought, confirming buying climax and exhaustion at premium. Current 111.711 is 389 pips below this pool, so pool now acts as ultimate HTF resistance. After buy-side sweep, price engineered to seek sell-side below 110.530, which was achieved on 30 Sep. Until close above 115.605, HTF bearish bias remains.
8 - Sweep Sell Side 110.530 LTF Fuel Sweep sell side at 110.530 daily low on 30 Sep occurred with long wicks at 110.530 and 110.700, where sell stops below September lows were raided before bullish engulfing covering 140 pips to 111.711. Because sell-side liquidity was taken while RSI printed 31 oversold and Momentum dipped to 95.98, it confirmed selling exhaustion and accumulation at discount. Current 111.711 is 118 pips above this pool, so pool now acts as bullish order block demand and invalidation for longs. After sweep, price engineered to seek buy-side above 111.765 minor high and 112.060 major high, which is in progress with displacement on H1 and M15. Although daily remains below red EMA-100, this sweep provides fuel for correction toward 112.570.
9 - Measure Target 112.570 Daily Resistance Measure target daily is 112.570 yellow EMA-34 mid and 113.065 red EMA-100 as major buy-side targets after sweep at 110.530. Because measure defines ultimate buy-side where price seeks after discount accumulation, this target aligns with equilibrium near 113.067. Daily range 110.530-115.605 equals 507 pips, minor measure at 112.060 swing high and major at 113.065 confluence represent buy-side of correction. Current 111.711 is 86 pips below 112.570 and 135 pips below 113.065, leaving room for continuation. Yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 must hold as breaker for continuation, while rejection at 113.065 would confirm bearish breaker resistance and reversal toward 110.530. Break above 113.065 invalidates daily bearish structure.
10 - Minor Target 111.765 Intraday Buy Side Minor target intraday is 111.765 M15 high on 16 Oct 19:00 and 112.060 H1 swing high as buy-side targets after sweep at 111.260. Because minor target is first pool where buy stops rest above intraday highs, it acts as magnet while price holds above yellow EMA-34. M15 range 111.260-111.765 equals 50 pips, minor target at 111.765 is 5 pips above current 111.711, major target at 112.060 is 34 pips above. Bullish displacement from 111.260 to 111.711 covered 45 pips reclaiming red EMA-100, confirming bullish flow. RSI at 59.1121 leaves room to 70, while Momentum at 100.0421 sustains above 100. If price rejects at 111.765 with shift below 111.600, minor target acts as reversal zone toward 111.385.
11 - Market Pulse 111.711 Bullish LTF Signal Market pulse on M15 and H1 is bullish after sweep at 110.530, while daily pulse transitions from bearish to neutral. Because daily Momentum at 100.6351 crossed above 100 after dipping to 95.98, it signals accumulation building from discount toward premium. H1 Momentum at 100.2990 and M15 at 100.0421 both above 100 confirm LTF bullish pulse, while RSI 61.5877 H1 and 59.1121 M15 above 50 support continuation. Daily RSI at 51.3259 crossing 50 from below indicates HTF exhaustion near discount. Market pulse teaches LTF bullish inside HTF bearish is counter-trend correction that will face selling at premium breaker 113.065-115.605. Pulse suggests long toward minor target valid while above 111.600 breaker.
12 - Premium Discount 110.530-115.605 Mapping Premium discount mapping with low 110.530 on 30 Sep as 100% sell side and high 115.605 on 31 Aug as 0% buy side, range 507 pips, equilibrium near 113.067 which aligns with red EMA-100 at 113.065. Because current 111.711 sits 135 pips below equilibrium, it trades in slight discount where longs are preferred after sweep rather than chasing shorts. Premium zone above consists of 113.065 red EMA breaker, 114.595 former support turned resistance, and 115.605 ultimate buy-side. Discount zone below consists of 111.100 bullish POI, 110.700 secondary demand, and 110.530 ultimate sell-side. Earlier price spent time in premium distribution late August, then discount accumulation early October, now recovering toward equilibrium.
13 - Bearish Displacement 115.605-110.730 HTF Distribution Bearish displacement 115.605 high 31 Aug to 110.730 low 10 Sep was aggressive distribution, 487 pips over 10 days with consecutive red daily candles and minimal retracement, breaking below yellow EMA-34 and red EMA-100. Because angle near 70 degrees with large bodies closing near lows, it showed strong distribution with no bullish mitigation allowed. Bearish fair value gaps between 113.065-115.605 remain unmitigated premium imbalance and ideal short zone after LTF sweep at 111.765. Momentum dropped from 101.20 to 95.98 during displacement, RSI fell from 68 to 31, confirming shift bullish to bearish. Bearish displacement after buy-side hunt engineers sell-side below, targeting 110.530 which was achieved. Current daily at 111.711 tests breaker but correction near completion requires caution.
14 - Bullish Displacement 110.530-111.765 LTF Accumulation Bullish displacement 110.530 low 30 Sep to 111.765 high 16 Oct was textbook expansion after sweep, 123 pips daily with green candles reclaiming yellow EMA-34 at 111.600, bullish break of structure. Because H1 printed large green candle from 111.060 to 111.470 on 15 Oct 15:00 covering 41 pips with no bearish wick, it confirmed buying at discount. Bullish fair value gap between 111.260-111.540 left during displacement now acts as breaker support and magnet for retest. Momentum rose from 95.98 to 100.6351 daily and 100.0421 M15, RSI rose from 31 to 51.32 daily and 59.11 M15, confirming buying pressure accumulation at discount. Displacement after sell-side sweep fuels buy-side sweep seeking 111.765 minor target and 112.570 major target, in progress while above 111.600.
15 - Breaker Flip 111.325/113.065 Polarity Structure Breaker polarity around 111.325 H1 confluence and 113.065 daily red EMA-100 illustrates classic polarity flip where resistance becomes support after displacement. Because 111.325 H1 zone was bearish resistance 15 Oct 11:00-23:00, broken bullish on 16 Oct 07:00 with 40-pip displacement, it flipped to bullish breaker support now tracked as entry for longs toward 111.765. Daily 113.065 red EMA was bullish support in August, broken bearish 4 Sep with large red candle, flipping to bearish breaker resistance capping corrections. Breaker retest is high-probability entry, so retest of 111.325 from above offers long toward 111.765 and 112.570, while rejection at 113.065 offers short toward 110.530. Bias bullish LTF while above 111.325, bearish HTF while below 113.065.
16 - OTE 111.260-111.600 Discount Long Zone Optimal trade entry using Fibonacci of high 115.605 as 0% and low 110.530 as 100% daily range 507 pips shows discount OTE long zone 62% at 112.459 and 79% at 111.595, high probability long zone for reversal. Because current 111.711 sits inside lower edge at 111.595, it offers favorable risk to reward for continuation toward premium. For intraday range 111.260 low to 111.765 high equals 50 pips, discount OTE long zone 62% at 111.451 and 79% at 111.365, premium OTE short zone 62% at 111.573 and 79% at 111.659, current 111.711 near premium OTE short zone 111.573-111.659 ideal for scalp if bearish shift triggers. OTE at 62-79% aligns with bullish order block demand matching yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 confluence.
17 - Main Bearish vs Correction Bullish Conflict Main trend daily is bearish after sweep at 115.605, price below red EMA-100 at 113.065, Momentum at 100.6351 just above 100 but below August peak, RSI at 51.3259 neutral, structure with lower highs from 31 Aug to 30 Sep, bearish flow dominant HTF. Correctional trend H1 and M15 is bullish after sweep at 110.530, price above yellow EMA-34 at 111.600 and red EMA-100 at 111.490 M15, Momentum above 100 at 100.2990 H1 and 100.0421 M15, RSI above 50 at 61.58 and 59.11, structure with higher lows from 15 Oct to 16 Oct, bullish flow LTF. Main versus correctional teaches correctional bullish inside main bearish is counter-trend that will be sold at premium POI 113.065-115.605 and at minor target 111.765. Current 111.711 is correctional leg near completion, main bearish remains until close above 113.065.
18 - Liquidity Void 112.060-113.065 Gap Inefficiency Liquidity void between 112.060 H1 swing high and 113.065 daily red EMA-100 was created during bearish displacement 115.605 to 110.730, large red daily candles left unfilled inefficiency indicating selling exceeded buying with no bullish mitigation, bearish fair value gap unmitigated premium imbalance. Because this void represents area where price moved quickly with minimal trading, it will act as magnet if bullish reversal sustains above 111.765. Currently 111.711 below void, any reversal must first reclaim 111.765 minor target and 112.060 major target then fill void toward 113.065 before reaching 114.595 premium. Voids often revisited for mitigation before continuation, so expectation is consolidation near 111.711 before attempting to fill void toward 112.570 if bullish momentum sustains with breaker holding at 111.600 support.
19 - Execution Plan + Fundamentals 111.711 CADJPY Current confluence around 111.711 shows multiple SMC elements aligning for bullish correction toward buy-side at 111.765 minor target and 112.570 major target after sell-side sweep at 110.530, price in slight discount near support testing premium OTE short zone intraday 111.573-111.659, testing bullish POI demand 110.530-111.100, testing bullish FVG 111.260-111.540, H1 and M15 bullish pulse with Momentum above 100. Upcoming fundamentals for CADJPY: Bank of Canada rate decision expected hold at 4.75% but dovish tone could weaken CAD toward 110.530, Bank of Japan intervention risk where hawkish BoJ strengthens JPY and pressures CADJPY toward discount, oil correlation because CAD linked to USOIL, DXY impacts JPY. Plan: wait for shift above 111.765 for long stop below 111.385 targeting 112.060 and 112.570, or shift below 111.600 yellow EMA for short stop above 111.765 targeting 111.385, 111.100, 110.530, risk 0.7%, avoid size into BoC and BoJ.
