FX.co ★ #Ethereum chart analysis

Ethereum (ETH) fell below the psychologically significant $2,400 level on Friday, extending its decline amid continued risk aversion in US capital markets. Institutional demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remained weak, with the US ETH spot ETF experiencing net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, including another $110.5 million outflow on Thursday. According to SoSoValue indices, these investment vehicles have seen net inflows only twice in the last 18 trading days, with total purchase volume falling below $40 million. The weak US demand was also reflected on spot trading platforms, with the Coinbase Premium Index (a measure of the percentage spread between the spot price of ETH on Coinbase Pro and Binance) falling again after a brief midweek stabilization. The index fell to -0.137, its lowest level since Ethereum's spot price hit its previous session low (near $1,500) in June. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm, confirms that the persistent negative value indicates a discount to Ethereum's spot price on Coinbase compared to global exchanges, suggesting waning interest from US institutional investors while local market participants are actively selling. Given the significant impact of US capital flows on global liquidity, this persistent selling pressure continues to significantly hinder price determination. Consequently, Ethereum reserves on centralized exchanges rebounded slightly on Friday after a minor dip on October 22. These reserves had previously increased by 402,000 ETH between September 25 and October 20, followed by a short outflow of 170,000 ETH. However, the resumption of the overall upward trend suggests increased supply from sellers on exchanges. With selling pressure generally persisting, the realized price (representing the total network cost on the blockchain) at $2,311 remains a key structural floor that market participants should closely monitor. In the derivatives market, Coinglass liquidation data shows that forced liquidations of Ethereum totaled approximately $60.5 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the vast majority, reaching $50.1 million. From a technical analysis perspective on the Binance daily chart, the ETH/USDT pair maintains a corrective downtrend and is currently trading below the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are converging near the resistance zone at $2,470. However, the spot price is currently slightly above the key demand floor formed by the 100-day exponential moving average near $2,357 and the adjacent support level at $2,355, suggesting that while sellers are actively testing the mid-term bottom, a formal breakout has yet to be confirmed. Technical momentum indicators point to continued downward pressure, with a potential risk of short covering. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 38, while the Stochastic Oscillator is hovering in oversold territory, indicating a gradual weakening of bearish momentum. On the upside, immediate dynamic resistance lies near the 20- and 50-day moving averages, around $2,470, followed by horizontal resistance at $2,548 and $2,637. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to shift the focus to the higher selling zones at $2,782, $3,075, and $3,253. On the downside, key support remains at the 100-day moving average at $2,357, with horizontal support at $2,355. A clear break below this support zone on the daily chart would invalidate the short-term bottom and reveal the potential for a deeper decline to $2,205, $1,972, and $1,828, where long-term buyers are expected to return with greater force.