FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell by more than 2% on Thursday, dropping below the $83,000 mark and threatening last week's gains. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly impacted market risk appetite. Despite the immediate price decline, institutional investor interest provided strong structural support. US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $528.4 million on Wednesday. This marked the third consecutive day of positive inflows, bringing the week's total to over $1 billion, effectively reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows. Furthermore, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) formally approved the Bitcoin ETF (BBIT) managed by BIT Asset Management AG, further bolstering institutional investor confidence. BBIT will be Switzerland’s first direct investment vehicle for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and is scheduled to begin trading on the Swiss SIX exchange in November, expanding long-term investment avenues for European institutional investors. However, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to drive up risk premiums, limiting Bitcoin’s recovery and reducing speculative buying. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported sinking four vessels suspected of carrying illicit oil in the northern Persian Gulf, while other reports indicated that three more ships struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, further heightening geopolitical concerns. Tehran warned of potential action against regional bases housing US forces, escalating tensions. Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran remains theoretically open to diplomatic channels while maintaining full military readiness, he expressed skepticism about the possibility of near-term progress given Washington’s stance. Furthermore, media reports of a joint US-Israeli military contingency plan against Iran following the midterm elections contributed to the continued rise in macroeconomic risk aversion in global markets. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is trading near $82,287, maintaining a relatively strong structural pattern as the price remains stable above key moving averages. The main trend line is supported by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) (around $80,873), the 100-day EMA (around $77,458), and the 200-day EMA (around $76,138), which together form a strong dynamic support zone. However, momentum indicators suggest that Bitcoin's price is temporarily entering a consolidation phase rather than a strong upward move. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 49 in neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) chart is showing a negative value, suggesting that short-term bullish momentum has waned after encountering resistance at higher technical levels. On the upside, immediate technical resistance is firmly at the $85,000 level. A break and close above this level is needed to reactivate bullish momentum and pave the way for a retest of higher resistance levels, such as $87,000. On the downside, the initial dynamic support level is at the 50-day moving average, around $80,873. If prices continue to decline below this level, the technical focus will shift to deeper demand support levels, represented by the 100-day moving average ($77,458) and the 200-day moving average ($76,138). Buyers should maintain this broader convergence of moving averages to ensure market stability and prevent a deeper economic correction.