FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Fundamental Analysis of the USD/JPY USD/JPY is moving around 157.86 as US voters head to the polls, with the pair rebuilding from a brief dip under 157.00 last Friday. The Fed and the BoJ both kept rates unchanged last week, each with hawkish dissents, which left the 2.75-point gap between their policy rates exactly where it was. The BoJ meeting produced the bigger swing. It held at 1.25% but said underlying inflation has finally reached its 2% target, which could open the door to a hike in December. Even so, the yen could not hold its gains, as uncertainty about the BoJ's path is weakening it. Tokyo has tried to push back, since Finance Minister Katayama said authorities stand ready to act against excessive or disorderly moves while stressing close coordination with the US on currency issues. Traders are not impressed, and MUFG believes intervention is unlikely before the 160 level. Risk sentiment also matters: safe-haven demand for the yen eased as the recent selloff in tech shares over AI valuations began to subside, and Japan's wage data this week could change the BoJ debate. On the US side, Trump has said further military action after the November 3 midterms remains an option, while hopes for Iran diplomacy act as a headwind for the dollar. The next scheduled meetings are the Fed on December 9 and the BoJ on December 18, so central bank speakers will drive sentiment until then. 1-Hour Chart Analysis In this USD/JPY analysis, the 1-hour chart shows a V-shaped recovery from last Friday's post-BoJ low below 157.00. Price at 157.86 is trading above both the 5 EMA and the 20 EMA, the 5 EMA is rising above the slower line, and both averages are tilting up near 157.70 and 157.55. This is a clean short-term bullish structure, and the pair is now pressing against the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 157.80, which has turned into a pivot. A hourly close above 158.00, with the EMAs fanning out, would target 158.35, the top of the recent range, and then 158.53, the 30-day high. If price slips back under the 5 EMA and then the 20 EMA, the first support is 157.50, followed by 157.00. A close below 157.00 would put the swing low near 156.97 in play and could extend to 156.50. Because election-day headlines can move yields and the dollar quickly, avoid trading right after news and wait for a candle to close beyond a level. A simple plan is to buy a dip to the 20 EMA with a bullish candle, using a stop below 157.40 and a first target of 158.35. Alternatively, sell a clear rejection near 158.35 with a stop above 158.55.

4-Hour Chart Analysis The 4-hour chart shows a pair that is still bound by a wider range but now leaning higher inside it. USD/JPY has been moving in a range of roughly 156.97 to 158.35. After the BoJ dip, the 5 EMA crossed back above the 20 EMA, which sits near 157.45 and lines up with the 50-day average at 157.47, so that zone should act as dynamic support. The pair's longer-term picture is mixed: it is far below the 52-week high of 163.99 and well above the low of 152.09, so the middle of the range offers little edge by itself. A 4-hour close above 158.35 and then 158.53 would break the month-long ceiling and open 159.00, followed by 160.00, where intervention risk rises sharply. On the downside, a 4-hour close under 157.00 would flip the bias and point to 156.50 and then 155.50. MUFG also points out that spot has remained below the 100-day SMA pivotal resistance, so strong confirmation is needed before expecting a breakout. Swing traders may prefer to buy pullbacks toward 157.45 to 157.50 with a stop under 156.90, and take partial profit near 158.35 instead of holding through 160. Since the yen can reverse quickly on official comments, keep position sizes modest.