FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

During Asian trading on Wednesday, gold prices fluctuated around $3,930 per ounce, moving cautiously; Investors generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude as they awaited the results of the US midterm elections. Market participants are closely monitoring the primary vote counts, which showed Democrats' strong performance in the race to control Congress. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), the results of 179 seats out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives were announced, of which the Democratic Party holds 114 seats, and is heading towards the 218 seats required to obtain a majority. Strategist commentary from Brown Brothers Harriman noted that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats have about a 70% chance of winning control of both the House and Senate. Analysts at ING stressed that such an outcome could weaken the dollar by sparking a fiscal confrontation over the debt ceiling, increasing the risk of a government shutdown, and could push President Donald Trump to adopt a tougher foreign policy agenda. A weak US dollar typically creates a favorable risk-reward environment for gold investors, thus providing essential support to gold prices; Although market participants also need to weigh the resilience of the US economy, continued above-target inflation, and continued Federal Reserve policy tightening when assessing these political dynamics. In addition to political news, traders will also look to a series of key US labor market indicators to gauge the future direction of Fed interest rates. Currently, the most important factor influencing gold price trends is the US October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to have a significant impact on interest rate expectations. Before that, the market's focus turned to private sector employment change data released on Wednesday. Market consensus indicates that the private sector will add 69,000 new jobs, down from 90,000 jobs in September. Previously, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS survey released Tuesday was better than expected, showing that the number of job openings rose to 7.523 million in September, not only above expectations of 7.13 million, but also higher than the 7.19 million the previous month. The abundant job vacancies in the US labor market highlight its essential flexibility; This reinforces market expectations that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for longer, limiting the short-term upside for gold, which does not generate interest. From a technical perspective, the (XAU/USD) remains bearish in the short term on the daily chart. Gold is currently trading near $3,937.90, below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, or $4,050.63). The gold price has never regained this short-term dynamic baseline, suggesting that the rebound trend remains muted by selling pressure from above. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 37, indicating continued downward pressure but has not yet entered the extreme oversold zone. To ease the current selling pressure and pave the way for a significant recovery, the bulls must push gold back above the initial resistance area at the 20-day EMA (around $4,050). On the downside, key structural support appears at a one-year low at $3,870.23, where strong buying support is necessary to avoid further technical deterioration.