Gold (XAU/USD) H4 Outlook Update Gold (XAU/USD) makes up for much of its initial losses in today's session and is seen with a slight negative trend around $4,070-$4,075 in the first half of Europe's session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD), which has rebounded from a low since late September, continues its positive move against other major currencies, putting downward pressure on gold. Meanwhile, a hawkish move from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also adds to the decline after gold hit a two-week high in the prior session. However, bearish players seem uncertain ahead of the US jobs numbers. As for the well-known US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), last month's data is expected to show an addition of 65K jobs, higher than the previous month's 29K. However, the unemployment level is likely to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Beyond this, the focus will be on Average Hourly Earnings, as rising wage pressures may affect Fed policy expectations. Yet these key macroeconomic factors are poised to inject volatility into financial markets and boost demand for USD, helping gold gain momentum. Meanwhile, the Democrats' clean sweep in the US midterm elections has fueled fears of a slowdown in artificial intelligence growth. This prompted a painful sell-off on Wall Street on Thursday and increased appetite for traditional safe-haven assets such as US government treasuries. Nonetheless, the strong overnight rebound in crude oil prices raised fears of a resurgence in inflation risks. Furthermore, market expectations remain that there is still an estimated 70% probability of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in its December meeting. In addition, geopolitical risk adds uncertainty around the next course of action by US President Donald Trump. Indeed, the latter declared on Thursday that the US would have to destroy the rest of Iran, and people would know within no time whether he will act or not. In addition, the US and Iran disagree on the issue of Iran's nuclear plan and the Strait of Hormuz. This further explains why the safe-haven dollar is seen exerting pressure on Gold prices. However, the commodity appears set for gains for the first time in three weeks and is above the $4,000 psychological level. The XAU/USD currency pair is constructive in the short term while trading above the Fibonacci cluster ranging from the 50.0% retracement zone of $4,006 to the 38.2% at $4,039. Nevertheless, an immediate decline to below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is bearish for buyers. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.40 has pulled back from the overbought area and currently suggests a sideways-to-bid bias. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish, with both the MACD line and the prior gains in the histogram indicating a pause in bullish pressure but not a reversal. Accordingly, some follow-through selling to below the 38.2% Fibo. A retracement to $4,039 will be needed to strengthen the outlook for declines toward the 50.0% retracement at $4,006. This will clear the path for declines toward the next retracement at 61.8% at $3,973, as well as toward the 78.6% retracement at $3,926. On the upper end, the immediate resistance is set at the 23.6% retracement of $4,080, and a move above the latter could pave the way towards the highs seen at $4,146.
