FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading near $75,920, consolidating after a sharp decline that has left the cryptocurrency struggling to regain its recent highs. The latest weakness reflects a combination of stronger-than-expected US employment data, substantial institutional fund outflows, and renewed pressure across technology and risk-sensitive assets. Although Bitcoin briefly climbed above $80,000 following the US midterm elections, the recovery quickly faded as investors reassessed Federal Reserve policy expectations and reduced exposure to volatile assets. One of the main pressures has come from the US labor market. October non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, significantly exceeding forecasts of approximately 65,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%. The stronger employment figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance or consider another interest rate increase in December. Markets have consequently raised the probability of further tightening, creating an unfavorable environment for Bitcoin and other assets that do not generate conventional income. The next major macroeconomic event is the US October inflation report, scheduled for November 10, which could influence expectations for the Fed's December decision. Institutional demand has also weakened considerably. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $1.28 billion in net outflows between November 2 and November 6, marking one of their largest weekly withdrawals in recent months. The withdrawals indicate that institutional investment demand has not yet recovered sufficiently to absorb selling pressure. Bitcoin also experienced a sharp liquidation event during the recent decline, with approximately $710 million in cryptocurrency positions liquidated over a 24-hour period, including around $250 million in Bitcoin long positions. Forced closures of leveraged positions have added to volatility and intensified downward momentum. Broader financial-market weakness has added another headwind. A significant selloff in artificial-intelligence and semiconductor stocks triggered wider risk reduction, with Bitcoin falling alongside technology-related assets. CoinShares noted that the recent decline appeared partly connected to the broader technology-market correction rather than an isolated deterioration in cryptocurrency fundamentals. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's sensitivity to technology stocks highlights its continued exposure to changes in global risk appetite and liquidity conditions. Political developments have introduced an additional source of uncertainty for the cryptocurrency market. The Democratic Party's control of both chambers of Congress could increase scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry and complicate the progress of proposed regulatory legislation. While the election outcome initially encouraged a recovery in risk assets, investors are now assessing the possibility of investigations and a less predictable regulatory environment. These developments could influence sentiment toward cryptocurrency businesses and investment products, although Bitcoin's immediate direction remains more closely tied to monetary policy expectations, institutional flows, and broader market liquidity. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading near $75,920 after a recent decline, with the hourly (H1) chart showing mixed short-term signals and the four-hour (H4) timeframe maintaining a clearly bearish structure. The difference between the two timeframes suggests that the market is attempting to stabilize following selling pressure, but buyers have not yet established a convincing reversal. On the H1 chart, price is hovering around the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), positioned near $75,730–$75,870, while trading close to or slightly below the 50-period SMA around $75,780–$76,130. The proximity of these averages indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, with neither side demonstrating decisive control. This area represents a short-term equilibrium zone, and a sustained move away from it could provide an early indication of the next directional move. The H4 chart remains more bearish. Bitcoin is trading well below the 20-period SMA around $76,400–$76,500 and the 50-period SMA near $77,300–$77,400. Both moving averages are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Their bearish alignment confirms that the broader corrective structure remains intact and that upward attempts could attract renewed selling pressure. Immediate supply is concentrated around $75,870–$76,150, where recent swing highs, previous rejection levels, and SuperTrend resistance converge. A sustained breakout above this region would be necessary to improve short-term momentum and reduce the current selling pressure. However, the stronger H4 moving-average resistance between $76,400 and $77,400 remains an important obstacle to a broader recovery. On the downside, immediate demand is located between $75,450 and $75,550, where buyers have repeatedly entered during recent pullbacks. A sustained break below this support could expose the secondary demand zone around $74,800–$75,000, corresponding with the recent multi-session lows. Failure to defend this lower region would reinforce the bearish structure and increase the risk of further losses.