FX.co ★ EUR/JPY

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY EUR/JPY is trading near 176.55 at the start of the week, hovering just above the 12-month low it set on October 30. The cross edged up to about 176.65 in early Monday trade, but upside is limited by hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, whose meeting minutes suggest policymakers are ready to speed up tightening. The yen has another potential helper, since OCBC notes that if Japanese pension and other investors bring more money home or raise currency hedging, a key source of structural yen selling could fade. Tokyo's attitude also matters: Monday's attention is on the scale of currency intervention during the July to September quarter, which tilted trading slightly toward yen buying. On the euro side, the ECB is sending a firm message, but the currency is not getting much lasting support. It held its deposit rate at 2.5% on October 29, a decision markets read as a hawkish pause, with euro area inflation at 3.8%. Lagarde said last week that many indicators will show whether a December hike is needed, and she will step down on February 7, 2027, which adds leadership uncertainty. Reuters sources say three policymakers see a hike on December 17 as likely, although high energy prices and French bond stress continue to cap the euro. The result is a market squeezed between two central banks that both lean hawkish , which explains the narrow trading. 1-Hour Chart Analysis On the 1-hour chart, EUR/JPY at 176.55 is moving sideways inside a tight band that has held since Friday, when the daily range ran from 176.18 to 176.97. Price is oscillating around the 5 EMA and the 20 EMA, both flat and almost overlapping near 176.50, which is a clear sign of indecision. This type of compression often comes before a sharp move, but the direction is not yet clear. The first resistance is 176.80, followed by 176.97 , and a clean hourly close above 176.97 with the 5 EMA moving up through the 20 EMA would favor a push toward 177.55. On the downside, 176.20 is the nearest support, then 175.70, and an hourly close under 176.20 would suggest sellers are testing the year low zone. Since yen crosses can jump on a single official comment, avoid placing trades just before major speeches , and wait for a candle to close outside the 176.20 to 176.97 band before acting. A simple intraday plan is to sell a rejection near 176.80 with a stop above 177.00 and a target at 176.25, or to buy a bounce from 176.20 with a stop under 176.00 and a target at 176.80.

4-Hour Chart Analysis The 4-hour chart shows a pair still trapped in a downtrend. The cross is moving inside a descending channel, with the upper boundary near 177.90 and the lower boundary near 174.30, and price is now in the middle of that channel. The 5 EMA is slightly below the 20 EMA, which hovers around 176.90 and slopes down, so each bounce has so far met selling at that average. The wider picture is weak, because the cross trades under the 50-day average near 177.89 and far below the 200-day average at 183.15. Resistance layers sit at 176.90 to 177.00, then 177.55 and 177.90; the channel top, and a 4-hour close above 177.90 would be the first real sign of a trend change, opening the way to 178.60. Support is at 176.20, then 175.70, and the key floor at 175.07, the 12-month low. A 4-hour close below 175.07 would confirm a breakdown and point toward 174.30. Momentum remains soft, with the RSI near 44, so rallies are more likely to fail than extend. Swing traders may prefer to sell pullbacks into the 20 EMA with a stop above 177.30 and a first target of 175.70, while keeping risk small because intervention headlines can move the yen sharply within minutes.