Gold Daily Forecast The yellow precious metal opens Monday's session on a positive note amid profit-taking in the Greenback after last Friday's robust US job numbers. Gold faces tough resistance at $4,100 and awaits this Thursday's CPI release. XAU/USD currently prints at $4,1116, gaining 1% from daily openings and testing a new intra-day high of $4,134. The US Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, trades around 101.83, down from Friday's high of 102.36. According to October's US Non-Farm Payrolls Report, NFPs increased by 165K, beating analysts' forecasts of 65K, with revisions to last month's NFP increase to 60K from 29K. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Labour market statistics suggest solid dynamics, giving the Fed ample grounds to continue tightening to meet its 2% inflation target. Higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East indicate upside inflation risks. Nonetheless, crude oil prices have softened from recent peaks amid ongoing diplomatic moves and optimism among traders regarding increased pressure on President Donald Trump to call off hostilities against Iran following Democrats' triumph during the midterms. In an exclusive CBS News interview broadcast Sunday, Trump said there was "no reason" to escalate tensions further. Trump is also scheduled to meet Qatar's prime minister in Washington, D.C., on Monday. US CPI will be released on Tuesday, while PPI data will follow on Friday. Either reading could alter market expectations for the Fed's last policy meeting this year. According to analysts at Commerzbank Research, the September dot plot indicated clear signs of tightening. It stated that "Out of the 18 Federal Reserve policymakers who presented estimates concerning the appropriate path of interest rates in September, 16 saw at least one additional interest rate hike this year." Furthermore, they noted that "the developments in economics since then, featuring impressive payroll numbers and high levels of inflation in October, probably won't change that view" Gold futures have priced in an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, per the CME FedWatch tool. From the Fed's side, its hawkish outlook remains a key downside pressure on gold prices due to the higher opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Alongside inflation figures, market participants are awaiting speeches from Fed speakers scheduled for this week. On the daily timeframe, XAU/USD is unable to break through the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Further north, the 200-day SMA forms strong resistance, confirming the prevailing negative sentiment. The precious metal has been trading above the 21-day SMA at $4,068. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has moved further into positive territory, suggesting some positive momentum. For resistance, the next target to watch is the 50-day SMA at $4,190, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,201, with stronger resistance at the 200-day SMA at $4,457. On the support side, the first barrier to watch is the 21-day SMA at $4,068, followed by the psychological $4,000 level and the annual low at $3,870.
