FX.co ★ GBP/USD
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GBP/USD
The British pound continued its decline against the US dollar (GBP/USD). The euro also retreated, following a clear technical sell signal. While both major European currencies lost value, the recent lack of a strong statistical correlation between them suggests that the euro cannot be assumed to be the direct cause of the pound’s decline. Furthermore, the pound remained under downward pressure despite the absence of any clear negative fundamental factors. Just a day earlier, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee had voted unanimously to raise interest rates, officially signaling the start of a monetary tightening cycle—a hawkish move that typically provides structural support to a currency. Nevertheless, the market experienced a technical pullback, which could potentially evolve into a broader downward trend. Later in the week, US economic data further fueled this decline: the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for October significantly outperformed market expectations. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.0, surpassing earlier forecasts that had ranged between 47 and 48. Crucially, however, the pound’s decline began before the release of this US macroeconomic data, underscoring the dominant role of technical factors in the downturn. From a charting perspective, the GBP/USD pair broke below its short-term trend line, signaling an accumulation of bearish momentum. Nevertheless, the pair has not yet closed below the Senkou Span B level (1.3358) on the daily chart, which means that, from a technical perspective, its overall bullish trend remains intact. On the five-minute chart, two sell signals emerged on Friday: the first occurred during the Asian trading session, when the price settled below the key line, providing a suitable selling opportunity at the opening of the European market. A second signal appeared below the 1.3358–1.3377 zone, but given how close it was to the market close, trading was not advisable. According to institutional positioning data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, non-commercial traders have maintained a net short position on the British pound throughout 2026. This net short position persists even as the GBP/USD exchange rate maintains a long-term bullish trend. Amidst geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong; despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations, risk aversion continues to drive capital flows toward the dollar. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates provides medium-term support for the dollar. However, since the recent break below the trend line occurred within a broader consolidation range, the overall macroeconomic bullish trend remains unchanged. Looking at a longer time frame, structural factors—such as trade tariffs and fiscal expansion anticipated during a Donald Trump presidency—continue to pose a long-term headwind for the dollar; however, the upward trajectory observed over the past few months on the weekly chart remains intact. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released on November 3, showed that non-commercial market participants increased their net long positions by 19,600 contracts—specifically by adding 7,100 long positions and closing 12,500 short positions.
