FX.co ★ bappy4x's - Trading journal

bappy4x Trading Journal | Crypto Market Update Asset: BTC/USD (Bitcoin) Date: November 15, 2026 Fundamental Overview Bitcoin has experienced a sharp sell-off over the past week, plunging roughly 16% to hit multi-month lows near $62,200 after trading around $73,875 just days ago. The primary macro driver behind this drawdown is a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with markets pricing in high odds of a December rate hike. Tighter liquidity expectations have triggered broad risk-off sentiment across digital assets, dragging total crypto market capitalization down over 10%. On the institutional and derivatives front, persistent net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have removed a key layer of demand. This weakness was compounded by a cascade of over $1.2 billion in leveraged long liquidations, accelerating the downward move through thin weekend order books. On the contrarian side, long-term valuation metrics such as the Ahr999 indicator have dropped deep into the dip-buying zone (below 0.45 for nine consecutive days), suggesting spot accumulators may begin stepping in as forced selling exhausts itself. Technical Analysis Market Structure: BTC/USD decisively broke down from its $73,000–$75,000 consolidation range and slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (~$73,100), shifting the daily and 4-hour structures firmly bearish. Momentum & Volume: High-volume red candles confirm aggressive distribution. Short-term momentum indicators (such as lower-timeframe RSI) are deeply oversold, creating conditions for a sharp relief bounce or dead-cat bounce once liquidity below $62,000 is swept. Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Support: $60,000 – $61,500 (major psychological handle and summer demand zone) Secondary Support: $58,000 (invalidation level if $60K fails) Immediate Resistance: $65,500 (Fibonacci pivot and breakdown retest zone) Major Resistance: $69,000 – $70,000 (prior breakdown structure)

bappy4x Trade Plan: Week Ahead Bias Tactical Counter-Trend Bounce Trend Continuation (Bearish) Entry Zone $60,000 – $60,500 (on 4H bullish rejection / liquidity sweep) $65,300 – $65,800 (on rejection at broken support) Stop Loss (SL) $58,400 (below psychological support buffer) $67,400 (above local swing high) Take Profit 1 (Exit 1) $65,500 (scale out 50% & move SL to breakeven) $61,500 Take Profit 2 (Exit 2) $69,000 (final target) $58,500 Risk-to-Reward ~1 : 3.0 (at TP1) / ~1 : 4.8 (at TP2) ~1 : 2.2 (at TP1) / ~1 : 3.8 (at TP2) Journal Execution Rules Patience on Sunday Night: Avoid chasing mid-range candles; wait for the weekly open liquidity sweep around the $60,000 handle. Confirmation Required: Do not set blind limit orders—wait for a 1H or 4H bullish engulfing candle or strong lower wick before entering long. Risk Cap: Keep position sizing reduced (0.5%–1% risk) due to elevated post-liquidation volatility.