FX.co ★ Rice Tumbles to Early-2021 Low

Rice futures have fallen below $12.30 per hundredweight, marking their lowest point since early 2021, as global production continues to far exceed demand. India's re-entry into the export market has resulted in a surge of competitively priced long-grain broken rice, intensifying competition with Southeast Asian producers and exerting significant pressure on global benchmarks. Concurrently, global rice production for the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high of 538 million tons, increasing total supply to nearly 743 million tons and resulting in persistently high international inventories. In the United States, data from the USDA indicates that ending stocks have reached a five-year high of 47.5 million hundredweight, due to lukewarm domestic consumption and only a modest recovery in exports, which remain limited by substantial carryover. Despite a brief recovery in July, the oversupply situation persists, and with demand remaining lackluster, especially in price-sensitive African and Asian markets, futures are solidly embedded in a downward trajectory.