FX.co ★ Lumber Rebounds on Expectations for Increased Demand

Lumber futures have surged beyond $570 per thousand board feet due to production cuts and changes in US monetary policy that have bolstered demand expectations. Although US housing data remains inconsistent, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have contributed to lower mortgage rates. This shift has encouraged some traders and wholesalers to cover short positions and rebuild inventories that were depleted following the summer's sell-off. At the same time, significant North American producers have announced temporary production curtailments, which will meaningfully reduce volumes this quarter, thereby tightening available supply and reducing excess stock levels. Earlier, accelerated shipments in anticipation of increased US duties created an inventory surplus, but with that situation largely resolved and mills reducing output, the market balance is shifting from clear oversupply toward a more constrained environment. Nonetheless, transaction volumes remain weak, and affordability challenges persist. While the market has rebounded from its lows, overall price momentum remains subdued.