The dollar index held near 97.7 on Thursday, trading close to the one-month highs reached last week. Investors remained on the sidelines in the absence of new drivers, even as earlier worries over President Trump’s trade policies have eased, leaving a degree of uncertainty in place. Sentiment was further pressured by concerns surrounding US-Iran negotiations.
On the data front, both initial and continuing jobless claims came in below expectations, indicating a stabilising US labour market and suggesting that employers are largely holding on to workers. At the same time, money markets have pared back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut by June has dropped to 50%, the lowest level this year, while the market has almost entirely priced out the likelihood of a third rate reduction by year-end.
