Aluminum futures in the UK fell to around $3,360 per tonne, pulling back further from a four-year high after President Trump’s comments eased fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran would end soon, as he came under growing economic and political pressure following several days of sharp volatility in oil markets.
Nonetheless, supply risks remain elevated. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted shipments from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum supply. Production from top producer China is unlikely to fully offset these losses, as its output is capped at 45 million tons this year under government measures aimed at curbing overcapacity in key manufacturing sectors. At the same time, expansion in Indonesia is being constrained by rising energy costs and regulatory hurdles.
These factors are unfolding against a backdrop of already critically low aluminum inventories on both the LME and COMEX.
