The dollar index climbed to around 99.4 on Thursday, marking a fourth straight session of gains and approaching a two-month high. The conflict involving Iran continues to intensify, with little indication of a near-term resolution. In turn, oil prices have moved higher, reinforcing expectations of rising inflation.
Recent data showed initial jobless claims at 212,000, slightly below consensus estimates and broadly consistent with readings in prior weeks. At the same time, the US trade deficit narrowed in January.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. Market participants will focus closely on the updated dot plot and policymakers’ projections for the remainder of the year. Futures pricing currently implies just one 25-basis-point rate increase, most likely in September.
