The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.24% on Thursday, building on a two-session climb that had already added roughly 13 basis points to the benchmark rate, as geopolitical tensions with Iran intensified. Iran’s new supreme leader declared that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, stating that the war would continue “out of necessity” and that additional fronts were under consideration.
At the same time, the ongoing surge in oil prices is reinforcing expectations of higher inflation. Treasury yields are also facing upward pressure from mounting concerns over the US fiscal outlook, particularly in light of rising defense expenditures.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at next week’s meeting, with market attention centered on the updated dot plot and policymakers’ projections for the rest of the year. Current pricing in futures markets points to expectations of just one 25-basis-point rate cut, most likely in September.
