Soybean futures slipped below $11.90 per bushel, extending their pullback from recent two-year highs as uncertainty over global trade and geopolitics pressured prices. Expectations of a possible US–Iran peace agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore flows of fuel and fertilizers—both critical to crop production—are viewed as supportive for agricultural supply, with the potential to boost global grain output.
At the same time, crude oil prices rebounded following reports of fresh US strikes in southern Iran, underpinning demand for biofuels and, by extension, oilseed crops. Sentiment was further clouded by renewed doubts over a US–China trade deal after Beijing declined to validate the Trump administration’s assertion that it had agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in US agricultural goods annually through 2028, in addition to existing soybean commitments. China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that the two sides had only reached a “guiding target” to expand agricultural trade, without endorsing the $17 billion figure.
