Japan’s coincident economic index, a key gauge of current economic conditions derived from indicators such as industrial production, employment, and retail sales, rose to 118.5 in June 2025. This surpassed the flash estimate of 118.2 and marked the highest level since May 2019. The latest reading followed May’s 117.9, underscoring a continued, moderate economic recovery.
Private consumption strengthened, supported by improving employment and income conditions that bolstered household spending, while consumer sentiment showed signs of stabilisation. External demand also firmed, with exports expanding against a backdrop of subdued imports. However, the outlook remained uncertain amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and other global risks.
Fiscal policy continued to underpin growth after the approval of a second consecutive record-high state budget. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintained an accommodative policy stance, even as it raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% in June, the highest level since September 1995.
