FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD Analysis The daily chart of the EUR/USD pair shows a trend reversal pattern that has been familiar in recent years: a sustained downtrend that transitions into an uptrend. This downtrend began with a high of 1.2350 in September 2020 and resulted in higher highs and lower lows before reaching a significant peak in late September 2022. During this downtrend, the EUR/USD pair broke through a key Fibonacci retracement level and declined. On September 27, 2022, the EUR/USD pair reached a low of 0.9530, approximately 2,800 pips below the previous high. After this decline, a structural change began. The price began to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating the formation of a bottom. From October 2022 to July 2023, the EUR/USD pair entered a broad sideways phase, oscillating between 1.0480 and 1.1270. This rectangular area is clearly visible on the chart and indicates a significant accumulation zone. The market tested the upper and lower limits several times, but the price rejected them each time, reinforcing the horizontal resistance and support levels. This sideways movement reflects the momentum and hesitation between buyers and sellers. A significant technical event occurred in October 2024. The EUR/USD pair fell significantly below the rectangular support level at 1.0480 and briefly fell to 1.0290 on November 2, 2024. However, a strong uptrend later reversed the downtrend. From this level, the price rebounded strongly and established a strong uptrend. From November 2024 to March 2025, the EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0290 to 1.1600, recording a gain of approximately 1,300 points in a relatively short period of time. This upward momentum was supported by a bullish crossover resulting from rising moving averages, particularly the 50- and 100-day moving averages. The uptrend broke through several key Fibonacci retracement levels. It clearly broke through the 23.6% level at 1.0640 in December 2024 and the 38.2% level at 1.0946 in January 2025. The 50.0% level at 1.1125 subsequently encountered resistance but was broken through at the end of February 2025. The price is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1600, a key support area for the previous downtrend. A breakout of this level would pave the way to the 100% retracement level at 1.2350, which would represent the culmination of the long-term downtrend. Trendline analysis also supports the uptrend. The long-term downtrend line from the September 2020 high to the June 2021 and February 2022 highs was significantly broken during the March 2025 uptrend. This breakout signals a strong bullish signal that the long-term downtrend has been broken. Furthermore, the strong ascending trend line connecting the November 2024 low to the March 2025 low remains intact, indicating a strong ascending channel supporting the continued uptrend. Momentum indicators also support the uptrend. The MACD is in positive territory, and the distance between it and the signal lines is increasing, suggesting a possible acceleration of the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently approaching the overbought zone at 67.21, which could indicate a short-term sideways trend or a consolidation phase before a further uptrend. The Stochastic oscillator is also in the overbought zone at 94.94 and 96.26, indicating an impending downtrend in the near future. However, these values indicate a strong uptrend and do not necessarily signal a sudden trend reversal. The key resistance is at 1.1600, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal supply zone from May 2021. A break above this level could pave the way to a new historical congestion zone at 1.1900 and then to the 1.2350 area. Initial support is located at the previous horizontal high at 1.1270 and the 50% retracement level at 1.1125. As long as the price breaks above the ascending trend line and holds these support levels, the uptrend will continue. Overall, the EUR/USD has transitioned from a long-term downtrend to a solid uptrend. Breakouts of the downtrend line and several Fibonacci levels indicate a structural reversal, supported by strong price action and technical indicators. The highs and lows recorded since October 2024 support this uptrend. As long as price action continues to follow the trend structure and moving averages, the outlook is positive, with a continued rise towards historical resistance levels in the coming weeks.