FX.co ★ USD/CHF

I am analyzing the USDCHF currency pair as it currently shows signs of a corrective reversal toward buying, but I still clearly see unfinished lower targets that the market may attempt to reach before any sustainable bullish structure can be confirmed. I am focusing on the latest impulsive move, where I observe that price rebounded from the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level around 0.7783, and from that area I note a very sharp and aggressive bearish reaction, which reinforces my broader bearish bias. I interpret this reaction as evidence that sellers remain active and that the recent upside move may simply be corrective rather than the start of a new trend. I am therefore only interested in a control breakout of the descending price structure, specifically through the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.7740, as I believe such a move would confirm that the correction is complete and that bearish momentum is ready to resume. I am expecting that once this level is decisively broken and accepted, price will continue moving lower toward the previously prioritized downside targets, which I have been tracking for some time. I am particularly focused on the area below the 161.8 Fibonacci extension, where I believe liquidity is concentrated and where hidden stop-loss orders are likely positioned, with the broader target zone extending toward the 0.7283 market level. I consider this zone to be technically justified based on Fibonacci expansion, prior price structure, and the overall bearish market context. I am fully aware that short-term buying pressure may still appear, but I see it as an opportunity for better sell positioning rather than a reason to change my directional bias. I am therefore keeping my system strictly aligned with selling scenarios only, avoiding premature long positions despite temporary bullish signals. I am prepared to reassess my outlook if market conditions change materially, but for now I remain committed to the downside scenario. I will closely monitor how price behaves at the start of the new trading week, as fresh liquidity and volume could either validate my bearish targets or force me to adjust my expectations accordingly.

I am encouraged by the noticeable increase in tick volumes and the expansion of the ATR this week, as I interpret this combination as a clear sign that market activity is intensifying and that larger players, possibly on the Swiss franc side, are becoming more active. I am closely watching the 0.7743 level, because I believe that a confident break and consolidation above this highlighted zone would significantly improve the overall technical picture and confirm that the market is ready to continue higher. I am also realistic, and I understand that if this breakout does not happen, I will need to reassess my approach and adapt my strategy in order to move the situation back into a “good” or at least controlled outcome. I am finding the price behavior over the last two weeks particularly interesting, because I see strong directional movement accompanied by rising volumes, which in my experience often precedes or accompanies a market reversal. I am aware that this move may not necessarily develop into a deep trend reversal, and I am open to the idea that it could instead result in a period of consolidation or stagnation within the highlighted price area. I am comfortable with that scenario, because even in the case of sideways movement I expect to exit the market around breakeven, accepting only a small loss in capital and time, which I consider manageable. I am reminding myself that time pressure is not an issue for me right now, and this allows me to stay patient and disciplined. I am paying close attention to the oscillators on the four-hour chart, as they look constructive and are hinting at a possible continuation to the upside. I am also analyzing the current timeframe, where I notice that the third wave of growth does not yet appear to be fully completed, which strengthens my decision to wait until Monday before making any decisive moves. I am observing that the USDCHF pair has now approached the 0.7732 level, which I see as a critical decision point where price could either bounce sharply or break through with momentum. I am therefore prepared for both scenarios, and I am planning to evaluate the market’s reaction at the beginning of the week to determine my next steps.