FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD M-30 Time Frame Update Markets anticipate a slowdown in retail spending by American consumers in December, adding to concerns about a deteriorating labor market, with the important, but delayed, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for release on Wednesday. "White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that US job gains could be lower in the coming months due to slower labor force growth and higher productivity," said Reuters. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) exceeds the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, indicating strong bullish momentum. Price remains above all rising averages, with the 21-day SMA of $4,896.01 providing local dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.89 (neutral), down from previous overbought levels and indicating balanced momentum. The 50-day SMA at $4,580.73 and the 100-day at $4,310.62 serve as sequential supports, while the 200-day at $3,847.79 supports the overall uptrend. With the price above all moving averages and momentum steady, falls might be absorbed at these levels, maintaining the bullish bias as the market remains above its short-term SMA support. The rising trend line from $4,397.52 supports the bullish tendency and provides support near $4,819.19. If the gold price defends the ascending support, bulls might prolong the rebound, while a closing beneath it would test the uptrend and leave room for a deeper retreat toward $4,397.52. In 2026, investors predict the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates by at least two 25-basis-point increments. This, combined with concerns about the US central banks independence, puts the US Dollar (USD) near its lowest level in more than a week, acting as a tailwind for non-yielding gold. Traders also appear hesitant to make big directional wagers ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday and the US consumer inflation data on Friday. XAUUSD M-15 Time Frame Update Gold (XAU/USD) maintained small intraday advances above $5,050 during the first part of the European session on Wednesday. Bets on more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) drive the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week low and serve as a crucial tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. However, the underlying positive sentiment may limit the upside for the safe-haven commodity. Bullish traders may also choose to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before positioning for additional gains. Meanwhile, concerns about the Feds independence reappeared as US President Donald Trump threatened to sue his newly appointed Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates were not lowered. Furthermore, Fed Governor Stephan Miran stated that full central bank independence is unattainable. This eclipsed hawkish statements from two regional Fed presidents, Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, and did not provide any relief to USD bulls. This implies that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. Technically, the XAU/USD pair demonstrated some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this month. The aforementioned SMA rises steadily and remains considerably below the price, reflecting the underlying bullish bias. A sustained hold above this average would keep the course slanted upward. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above the Signal line, with both above zero, and a contracting histogram indicates fading upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 (neutral) indicates a consolidative tone; thus, it is recommended to wait for some follow-through strength above the $5,090 level before preparing for further gains.