My Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY 1-Hour Chart Looking at this 1-hour chart, I see AUD/JPY in a sharp downtrend that has accelerated over the past several sessions. Price has collapsed from the 110.200 region, breaking through multiple support levels, and is now trading near 109.253. The sell-off has been aggressive, with little in the way of meaningful counter-trend bounces. My analysis using FVGs, Order Blocks, and S/R focuses on identifying where the next potential support might emerge and whether were approaching exhaustion levels.
My Read on the Market Structure & Key Levels How I View the Current Context: The structure is bearish with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent leg shows a breakdown below the 109.600 support level, accelerating the move lower. Momentum remains with the sellers, and pullbacks have been shallow, indicating persistent selling pressure. There are no clear reversal patterns forming yet.
The Critical Zones Im Watching: Current Support (Testing): The
109.200 - 109.300 zone is the current level being tested. Price is hovering near the recent low of 109.253.
Next Psychological Support: Below current levels, the
109.000 round number is the next obvious target, followed by
108.500 and
108.000.
Immediate Resistance (First Hurdle): The
109.600 - 109.800 zone is the first key resistance, representing the broken support level that should now act as resistance.
Primary Resistance (Trend Reversal Level): The
110.000 - 110.200 area is the significant resistance that would need to be reclaimed for any hope of trend reversal. This was the recent swing high region.
Where I Identify the Fair Value Gap (FVG): The sharp sell-off from 110.000 created multiple bearish FVGs. The most significant imbalance zone I see is between approximately
109.600 and 109.900. This gap now acts as a magnetic resistance zone. Any bounce into this FVG would be a textbook opportunity for sellers to re-enter, filling the imbalance before potentially continuing lower.
My Order Block Analysis: Bearish Order Blocks (Supply Zones): Primary: 109.900 - 110.200 – The breakdown candle cluster that initiated the most aggressive leg down.
Secondary: 109.600 - 109.800 – The rejection area where selling pressure emerged during the consolidation before the breakdown.
Bullish Order Blocks (Demand Zones): I dont see any significant bullish blocks forming yet. The
109.000 zone might attract buyers due to psychology, but no structural demand has been established.
My Trading Plan & Bearish Bias My bias is bearish, and Im looking to sell rallies rather than buy dips.
My ideal scenario is a bounce that climbs into the FVG and bearish order block confluence zone between 109.600 and 109.800. Ill wait for a clear rejection pattern there to consider a short entry, targeting a break below
109.200 toward
109.000 and potentially
108.500. If price continues to grind lower without a meaningful bounce, I might consider a breakout short below
109.200, but I prefer the better risk/reward of a pullback entry. The only thing that would make me reconsider the bearish view is if price powers back above
110.200 and holds—that would invalidate the breakdown structure. Until then, Im treating any strength as a selling opportunity in this downtrend.
Risk Warning: The sell-off has been steady, and were approaching the
109.000 psychological level, which could attract buyers. Ill keep position sizes reasonable and stops tight, waiting for confirmation rather than chasing the move. The next few candles will be crucial in determining whether we get a relief bounce or continue lower.
