EUR/USD Timeframe H4: The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe exhibits quite interesting price dynamics, particularly when linked to the positions of the 100-day moving average (MA 100) and 200-day moving average (MA 200), as well as the price's interaction with the established horizontal support and resistance lines. Overall, the previous major trend was still dominated by bearish pressure, as evidenced by the sharp price decline from mid-February to mid-March. During this phase, the price consistently moved below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with both moving averages sloping downward, indicating strong seller dominance. However, this structure began to change in late March to early April, when the price began forming a higher low pattern, signaling a potential reversal or at least an upward correction. Currently, the price appears to have successfully broken through the 100-day moving average (blue line) and is approaching and even briefly touching the 200-day moving average (red line). This is an early sign that short-term bullish momentum is beginning to form. However, the 200-day moving average, which remains relatively flat to slightly declining, indicates that the medium-term trend has not yet fully reversed to bullish. Therefore, the area around the 200-day moving average (MA) is a crucial zone that determines the next direction.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, there are several important levels worth paying attention to. The nearest resistance is around 1.1723, which previously served as a strong supply area and has repeatedly held back price increases. If the price can break through this level with strong momentum, the opportunity for further upside to the next resistance level around 1.1834 will increase. However, as long as the price remains stuck below 1.1723, the potential for rejection remains significant. Meanwhile, the nearest support is located at 1.1639, which is currently supporting the price after breaking out of the previous consolidation. If a correction occurs, this area will be the first test point. Further decline could bring the price back to the next support level around 1.1504, which is a significant demand area based on the previous price structure. Deeper support lies in the 1.1465 to 1.1408 range, which formed the basis of the last reversal. The combination of the price position between the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and its proximity to strong resistance indicates that the market is in a transitional phase. If buyers are able to maintain pressure and push the price consistently above the 200-day moving average and the 1.1723 resistance level, confirmation of a bullish trend change will become increasingly valid. Conversely, failure to break through this area could trigger a correction back to lower support levels, even opening the opportunity for a continuation of the previous bearish trend. Thus, the current EUR/USD movement is likely in a directional determination phase, where the price reaction to the 200-day moving average (MA) and horizontal resistance will be key in determining the next bias.
