GBP/USD Timeframe H4: The GBP/USD pair, on the H4 timeframe, exhibits a previously bearish trend, but is beginning to show signs of recovery in the short term. This can be observed from the price's interaction with the 100-day moving average (MA100) and 200-day moving average (MA200), as well as its response to established horizontal support and resistance areas. In the previous phase, price movement was dominated by a fairly consistent downtrend from mid-February to the end of March. Prices moved below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with both moving averages having a downward slope, confirming the dominance of selling pressure. A clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows formed, indicating that sellers were in control of the market during that period. However, beginning in early April, a change in the character of price movement began to emerge. GBP/USD formed a base pattern in the strong support area around 1.3150–1.3200, followed by a significant increase. This movement successfully pushed the price through the 100-day moving average (MA100), which had previously served as dynamic resistance. This breakout signaled the beginning of short-term bullish momentum.
Currently, the price is hovering around 1.3420 and interacting with a fairly strong horizontal resistance area around 1.3480. This area previously served as a distribution point and has repeatedly held back price increases. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average (MA), located not far above the price, reinforces this zone as additional dynamic resistance. As long as the price is unable to consistently break through and remain above the 200-day MA, the medium-term trend remains neutral to bearish. On the support side, the nearest level is around 1.3380, which is currently acting as minor support after the previous breakout. If a correction occurs, this area has the potential to become an initial rebound point. The next support level is around 1.3280, which was a previous consolidation area and a fairly strong demand zone. A deeper decline could lead back to the 1.3200–1.3150 area, the main base of the recent uptrend. The current price structure indicates that the market is in a transition phase from bearish to potentially bullish. This is reinforced by the price position, which is already above the 100-day moving average (MA), although the 200-day moving average (MA) remains a major obstacle. If buyers can push the price through the 1.3480 resistance level and the 200-day moving average (MA), with strong volume and momentum, the opportunity for continued gains towards the 1.3575 to 1.3660 area will increase. Conversely, if the price fails to break through this resistance and shows strong rejection signals, a correction back to the lower support area is likely. In this scenario, the price movement could re-enter a consolidation phase or even resume the previous bearish trend if the main support is successfully broken. Therefore, the current GBP/USD position is at a crucial point, where confirmation of its future direction depends heavily on whether the price can break through or be rejected from the strong resistance area near the 200-day moving average (MA).
