GOLD Timeframe H4: The GOLD (XAU/USD) instrument on the H4 timeframe shows that the market was previously under quite strong bearish pressure, but is now entering a consolidation phase with a limited recovery trend. The price movement seen on the chart demonstrates how the price interacts with the 100-day moving average (MA100) and 200-day moving average (MA200), as well as horizontal support and resistance levels, playing a key role in determining the next direction. In the previous phase, the price experienced a sharp decline after failing to maintain the peak area around 5400. This decline was aggressive, causing the price to simultaneously penetrate the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a trend change from bullish to bearish. The downward slope of both moving averages reinforces the indication that selling pressure dominated the market during that period. A clear structure of lower highs and lower lows formed, reflecting strong seller control. However, after reaching a strong support area around 4200–4300, the price began to show signs of stabilization. This area became a significant turning point, with a fairly consistent buying reaction. From that point, the price began to form a gradual upward pattern, creating higher lows, indicating a recovery effort by buyers. This movement also pushed the price back closer to the 100-day moving average (MA), although it has not yet been able to significantly penetrate the 200-day moving average (MA).
Currently, the price is hovering around the 4750 area, just below the 200-day moving average (MA), which acts as key dynamic resistance. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the price and is beginning to slope downwards, signaling that bearish momentum is weakening. However, as long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA), the medium-term trend has not fully reversed to bullish. Horizontally, the nearest resistance is around 4859, which is a key supply area and has repeatedly held back price increases. If the price is able to firmly break through this level, the potential for further upside towards the 5049-5239 area will be greater. Conversely, failure to break through this resistance could trigger renewed selling pressure. On the support side, the nearest support level is around 4700, which is currently serving as a consolidation area and short-term price support. If a decline occurs, the next support level is around 4657, which previously served as a breakout area. Stronger support is seen around 4528, which was a key demand zone in the previous price structure. A drop below this level could open the door to a retest of the lows around 4400 to 4220. Overall, GOLD is currently in a transition phase between a weakening bearish trend and the potential formation of a new bullish trend. The key lies in the price's ability to break through the 200-day moving average (MA) and the horizontal resistance above it. If successful, confirmation of a trend change will be even stronger. However, if rejection occurs in this area, the market could potentially return to sideways movement or continue downward pressure in the medium term.
