On the one-hour chart, the 200-period SMA rests at 1.3550, offering a cushion directly beneath current valuations, whilst the 50-period SMA sits at 1.3595, functioning as a nearby ceiling overhead. On the four-hour timeframe, the 200-period SMA resides at 1.3440, representing a substantially longer-term demand zone further below, whereas the 50-period SMA is positioned at 1.3550, aligning flawlessly with the one-hour 200 SMA. This configuration produces a dual moving average convergence at the 1.3550 area, bestowing notable technical significance upon this support zone. The present price of 1.3558 trades marginally above the clustered SMA foundation at 1.3550, yet stays confined beneath the one-hour 50 SMA barrier at 1.3595. The support occupies the 1.3540 to 1.3555 band, encompassing the confluence of the one-hour 200 SMA and four-hour 50 SMA. Secondary support rests at 1.3500 to 1.3510, marking a psychological milestone and an intermediate buffer. Tertiary support sits at 1.3440 to 1.3450, aligning with the four-hour 200 SMA and representing a major demand pocket. Additional support zones include 1.3400 to 1.3410, 1.3350 to 1.3360, and 1.3300 to 1.3310 as progressively deeper floors. On the resistance side, the primary barrier occupies the 1.3580 to 1.3595 band, corresponding to the one-hour 50 SMA level. Secondary resistance resides at 1.3620 to 1.3630, marking a recent peak and an intermediate obstacle. Tertiary resistance sits at 1.3650 to 1.3660, representing a significant supply region from prior trading. Additional resistance zones include 1.3680 to 1.3690, 1.3720 to 1.3730, and 1.3750 to 1.3760 as the upper boundaries of the broader range. The cable pair registered a modest advance during Friday's Asian session, trading near 1.3560. Growing expectations for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle Eastern conflict have reduced the US dollar's safe-haven allure.
President Trump indicated that despite renewed military engagements in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the ceasefire arrangement with Iran remains active, cautioning that any termination would be readily apparent. The Trump administration continues to await Tehran's response to its proposal for reopening this strategic waterway and concluding the conflict. Increasing optimism regarding a potential US-Iran peace accord could depress the greenback and offer support to the currency pair in the near term. Market participants will be intently monitoring the much-anticipated Non-Farm Employment Report scheduled for later Friday. Consensus forecasts project 62,000 new jobs added in April, representing a marked decline from the 178,000 positions created in March. The unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.3 percent. A softer-than-expected employment reading could bolster the argument for Federal Reserve rate reductions, further weighing on the dollar and lifting the pound. Conversely, a robust jobs number could spark a greenback recovery. At its most recent gathering, the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75 percent, aligning with market projections, presenting a scenario framework that suggested a rate hike might be warranted while sidestepping any pre-emptive commitments. Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that potential "strong austerity" measures should be considered if energy price shocks stemming from the Middle Eastern conflict persist in fueling inflation. The most likely scenario is continued upward momentum for sterling against the dollar, as ceasefire hopes dampen the currency ahead of the jobs data. The 1.3540 to 1.3555 support zone represents the critical line in the sand for the bullish structure. A sustained footing above this region keeps buyers in command, with the initial upside target at 1.3595, followed by 1.3620 to 1.3630. However, a descent below 1.3540 would expose the 1.3500 support level and could signal fading ceasefire optimism. The payroll report will serve as the primary catalyst. A downside surprise could propel the pair toward 1.3620, while a strong employment figure could reverse the advance and test the 1.3500 floor. The Bank of England's measured posture, suggesting a possible rate hike without firm commitments, leaves room for further policy divergence if the Federal Reserve implements rate reductions later this year. The combination of Middle East ceasefire expectations, anticipated Fed easing, and the BoE's hawkish tilt suggests that the path of least resistance for the cable pair remains higher, though caution is warranted ahead of the employment data.
