FX.co ★ Fitch Downgrades Thailand Outlook to Negative

Fitch Ratings has altered the outlook on Thailand's sovereign credit, moving it from stable to negative while maintaining its BBB+ rating. This adjustment reflects increasing fiscal pressures and a decline in growth prospects. As of August 2025, government debt escalated to 59.4% of GDP, marking an increase of 25 percentage points since the pre-pandemic period and aligning closely with the 'BBB' median of 59.6%. Political turbulence has further dampened sentiment, exacerbated by the removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in September. The incumbent minority government is anticipated to trigger general elections within four months, escalating risks of short-term fiscal stimulus and policy inconsistency. Concurrently, Thailand’s economic rebound is proving to be uneven. The tourism sector has been sluggish, with 21.9 million visitors recorded between January and August 2025, significantly lower than the nearly 40 million visitors in 2019. Additionally, exports are facing challenges due to weakening global demand and the impact of a 19% tariff imposed by the U.S.