FX.co ★ Russia Tweaks 2025 Energy Forecast: Gas Down, Oil Up

Russia has adjusted its energy outlook for 2025, lowering its forecasts for natural gas exports and production while increasing its projections for oil exports. This change in outlook is largely due to the continued impact of its conflict with Ukraine and worsening relations with Western nations. Russian gas now constitutes merely 18% of EU imports, a significant decrease from 45% in 2021, and oil imports have decreased to 3% from approximately 30%. The European Union plans to completely eliminate dependence on Russian energy by 2027. Additionally, Moscow has reduced its expectations for sea-borne liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, pointing to challenges in selling output from Arctic LNG 2, which began production in late 2023 and is subject to U.S. sanctions. Despite these challenges, Russia now anticipates oil exports to reach 240.1 million tons in 2025, up from its earlier estimate of 229.7 million tons.