FX.co ★ EBRD Raises Turkey's 2025 GDP Forecast to 3.1%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has adjusted its 2025 growth projection for Turkey, now estimating an increase to 3.1%, a 0.3 percentage point rise from its May forecast. Despite this optimistic adjustment, the EBRD has cautioned that ongoing political tensions, fluctuating investor confidence, and stringent global financing conditions continue to present considerable challenges. According to its recent report encompassing economies from emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, the EBRD has retained its 2026 growth projection for Turkey at 3.5%. The bank anticipates Turkey's growth to fluctuate within the 3.1% to 3.5% range over the period of 2025 to 2026, buoyed by improving financial conditions. The report also underscores that "Political tensions, volatile risk sentiment, and tighter global financing conditions remain key risks, considering Turkey's substantial short-term external financing needs."