Wheat futures slipped below $5.40 per bushel, retreating from a three‑month high just under $5.50 reached on February 12, as improving global supply prospects and easing weather risks in the United States pressured prices. The market came under additional weight from higher production expectations in Russia, after Sovecon raised its 2026 harvest forecast to 85.9 million tons and IKAR projected output at around 91 million tons, both signaling abundant export potential.
Further bearish pressure emerged from India’s decision to authorize the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat to support farmers after strong harvests, adding fresh supply to the international market at the same time Argentina is shipping a near‑record crop of almost 28 million tons. On the domestic front, earlier concerns about winterkill in the US Plains have largely faded as temperatures normalized, prompting traders to unwind previously built weather‑related risk premiums.
