Australia’s economic outlook dimmed slightly at the start of 2026, as the MI Leading Index turned negative in January. The index fell to -0.1% in January 2026 on a month-over-month basis, down from a revised 0.1% in December 2025, according to data updated on 17 February 2026.
The month-over-month comparison shows that while December had still pointed to modest forward momentum, January’s reading marks a shift toward a more cautious outlook for future economic activity. The “actual” figure for January reflects the change versus December 2025, whereas the “previous” figure for December measured the change relative to November 2025.
Although the move from +0.1% to -0.1% is modest in absolute terms, the slide into negative territory may signal a cooling in leading indicators of growth, and will likely be watched closely by markets and policymakers for signs of emerging softness in Australia’s economic trajectory.
