FX.co ★ Wheat Rebounds on Renewed Supply Risks

Wheat futures rebounded toward $5.75 per bushel as escalating logistical disruptions in the Middle East and worsening US crop conditions outweighed downward pressure from a record South American harvest. Although the US–Iran conflict has not directly interrupted wheat shipments, surging diesel and fertilizer costs—alongside a 4.8% increase in urea prices—are amplifying inflationary risks for producers. Domestic concerns are intensifying after the USDA reported a 22% month-over-month drop in winter wheat condition ratings, driven by low snowpack and expanding drought across the southern Plains. These supply fears are intersecting with expectations of a 20% decline in Russian exports for the 2025–2026 season, as adverse weather and logistical constraints in the Black Sea region curb availability. While the US dollar remains strong, traders are increasingly focused on the March WASDE report and the prospect that lower global ending stocks could underpin the current price recovery.