US natural gas futures fell more than 4% to below $3.05 per MMBtu on Monday, as growing expectations of a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East pared back the risk premium across the energy complex. While international benchmark prices remained elevated amid QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure, Henry Hub contracts came under pressure after President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran was nearing an end and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was resuming.
This shift in sentiment intensified an ongoing sell-off already driven by forecasts for unseasonably warm weather and record-high domestic output. At the same time, continuing operational disruptions at the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas are keeping more supply trapped in the US market, muting the impact of global tightness on domestic prices. Even in the face of a sizable weekly storage withdrawal, the combination of robust production and constrained export capacity has left US natural gas prices largely uncoupled from the volatility affecting crude oil.
