South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator declined by 0.9% month-on-month in July 2026, following a revised 1.0% decrease in June. Six of the ten component time series fell, more than offsetting gains in the remaining four. The largest negative contributions stemmed from a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a drop in residential building plans approved. In contrast, the main positive contributions came from a faster six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisements and a widening interest rate spread.
Over the same period, the coincident business cycle indicator edged down 0.1% in June, primarily reflecting weaker real wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales, while the lagging indicator increased by 0.2%.
