FX.co ★ USD/CAD

USD/CAD Forecast: Correction to 200 EMA (1.3700) with Subsequent Decline The USD/CAD pair is showing a short-term recovery after a recent decline, approaching the key resistance of 200 EMA (1.3700). It is expected that this level will halt the rise, after which the downtrend will resume. Key Factors: Bearish trend remains the priority: CAD supported by: Increase in oil prices (WTI above $80) Tough stance of the Bank of Canada (rates on hold) USD under pressure: Expectations of Fed easing in 2024 Decrease in US Treasury bond yields Technical Levels: Resistance: 1.3700 (200 EMA) → 1.3720 (additional selling) Support: 1.3650 → 1.3625 (target after rejection from 200 EMA) Critical Level: 1.3750 (breakout will negate the bearish scenario) Trading Strategy: 1. Sell at 1.3700–1.3720 (200 EMA + liquidity zone) Stop-loss: above 1.3750 Targets: 1.3650 → 1.3625 → 1.3600 2. Alternative entry: If price sharply breaks 1.3700 but fails to hold above – sell on retest. Risks: Oil drops below $80 → weakens CAD Fed delays rate cuts → strengthens USD False breakout of 200 EMA (requires confirmation of candle close) Conclusion: Primary Scenario (70%): Correction to 1.3700 (200 EMA) → sales targeting 1.3625–1.3600. Alternative (30%): Breakout of 1.3750 → transition to a range of 1.3700–1.3800. Recommendation: Wait for a clear rejection from 200 EMA before entering sales.