FX.co ★ EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY H4 Timeframe The EUR/JPY price movement on the H4 timeframe shows a market structure that remains in a medium-term uptrend, although bullish momentum appears to be weakening in recent sessions. This can be observed through the price moving above two moving average indicators, namely the 100-day moving average (MA100) (blue) and the 200-day moving average (MA200) (red). Both moving averages are pointing upward, indicating that the trend remains bullish. The 100-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average (MA200), confirming that an upward trend has been forming since mid-November. However, although the main trend remains up, a consolidation phase and weakening momentum are clearly evident after the price peaked at 181.98—a key resistance zone that has repeatedly failed to break through. After failing to break through this resistance, the price experienced downward pressure but managed to remain above the 100-day moving average, which now serves as dynamic medium-term support. This sign indicates that buyers have not completely lost control, although their dominance is starting to wane. The nearest static support level visible on the chart is at 179.95, which the price has so far not touched. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 179.95 support level, the bullish outlook remains intact. However, if the decline continues and breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA), the potential for a deeper correction towards the 200-day moving average (MA) area around 178.95–179.10 will increase. This area is important support because it is also close to the previous swing low structure.

Meanwhile, for a bullish scenario, EUR/JPY needs a strong enough push to retest the 181.98 resistance level. If the price is able to break through and hold above this level, there will be room for upside towards 183.00 or even 184.20. However, if this resistance continues to trigger selling pressure, the ranging pattern or controlled pullback will likely continue. Overall, the bias remains bullish as long as the price is above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). However, traders should be wary of a potential technical correction, especially considering the last few candlesticks have shown long upper shadows, indicating selling pressure in the high price area. Buyer momentum is starting to weaken, so further validation is needed before entering a long position. In conclusion, the best scenario at this time is to wait for the price to react to the 100-day moving average. If a strong rebound occurs, a buy opportunity could be considered. However, if a breakdown occurs, there is potential for a correction towards the 200-day moving average before the medium-term uptrend resumes. The balance between the still-bullish trend and fading momentum makes this area a crucial phase for confirming the next direction.