FX.co ★ GBP/USD

Hello traders! #GBPUSD - the bearish impulse continues to dominate, the price confidently settled below 1.3250–1.3252 and shows steady weakness, expecting further decline. Timeframe and Context The analysis is conducted on the hourly timeframe (H1). After a failed attempt to settle above the 1.3250–1.3252 zone, the pound formed a peak and experienced a strong pullback. The current candle closing price is 1.3244 with a decrease of -0.05% (O 1.3250 → H 1.3252 → L 1.3240 → C 1.3244), the structure is clearly bearish: a series of red candles after a local maximum, the level of 1.3250 was broken and not held, the price is under steady selling pressure. Market Structure: Bearish Trend in the Medium-Term Perspective Locally, the market shows complete dominance of sellers: - Confident break below the 1.3250 zone followed by holding below it - Dominance of bearish closings in the current segment, weak and short-lived attempts of rebound without continuation - Absence of forming higher lows and stability below dynamic resistance — a classic signal of a continuation of the downward impulse Buyers failed to seize the initiative after testing the upper boundaries, creating favorable conditions for further selling pressure. Indicators confirm strong bearish control: RSI in the lower half of the range without bullish divergences, weak momentum; price remains below key EMAs (50, 100, 200); MACD is negative with a downward impulse expansion. Liquidity and Levels Significant liquidity was collected above 1.3250–1.3252 during the rise (stop-losses and long positions closure), now the main accumulation of buyers' stops and pending orders is below current prices in the zones of 1.3244–1.3240 and further down to 1.3200–1.3180+. Breaking below 1.3250 and settling below 1.3244 opened the way to lower targets: - Liquidity is concentrated below — expecting a cascade of stop-losses collection near 1.3240 - Current stabilization around 1.3244 and the absence of a strong rebound indicate steady selling pressure - Approach to support zones with high volatility and acceleration of movement is expected Levels coincide with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the previous impulse, dynamic EMAs, and the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel. Projected Movement: Continuation of the Downward Impulse Further development of a strong downward impulse is expected after settling below 1.3244: - Settling below 1.3240 with acceleration - Breaking the 1.3200–1.3180 zone with activation of large pending sell orders - Updating lows and forming a new downward wave In the short term, a narrow consolidation or a weak pullback in the range of 1.3244–1.3252 may occur to digest the movement, but in the medium term, the trend remains extremely bearish with the potential to test 1.3150–1.3100+. Movement Targets (Take Profit for Short) TP1 — 1.3240–1.3200 First significant support zone after the current impulse Suitable for partial profit-taking TP2 — 1.3180–1.3150 Intermediate area with liquidity accumulation and expansion Opportunity for additional profit-taking TP3 — 1.3100– Key medium-term target of the current bearish impulse Expected range for the completion of the downward wave Risks and Scenario Cancellation Conditions The scenario will be canceled under the following conditions: - Confident break and settling above 1.3252 with the formation of a series of strong bullish candles - Development of an ascending structure with a series of higher lows and strengthening of buying pressure Final Conclusion Trend: medium-term bearish, impulse intact Correction: completed at strong resistance 1.3250–1.3252 Liquidity: main accumulation below 1.3240–1.3180, high probability of continued downward impulse Targets: 1.3240–1.3200, 1.3180–1.3150, 1.3100– Colleagues, how do you view the pound now? Holding short or expecting a rebound from 1.324? Share your levels and ideas in the comments!