Thursday Trade Analysis: GBP/USD 1H Chart.
The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, despite having even fewer reasons for it than the EUR/USD pair. There was no news or publications concerning the British pound at all yesterday. However, the euro rose following yet another "dovish" ECB meeting, and the British pound simply followed the euro's lead. That's the whole explanation for the new strengthening of the British currency. The new upward trend remains intact, having started right after the previous uptrend ended. No downward trend emerged after the previous trendline was broken. The market still shows no desire to buy the dollar — even when there are reasons to do so. For example, yesterday, when the ECB made an absolutely dovish decision. Today, the U.S. dollar may face additional downward pressure if the labor market and unemployment reports in the U.S. come out weaker than forecasted.
GBP/USD 5M Chart.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, several trading signals were formed, but they didn't allow beginner traders to make a profit. The first two signals turned out to be false, and the last one was formed too late. Both trading signals could have been filtered out since they occurred during the timeframe when the ECB was announcing the results of its meeting.
How to Trade on Friday:On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to react mainly to Donald Trump and remains quite skeptical of his policies. Some signs of reduced trade tensions are present, but the market isn't showing optimism, and there are more signs of renewed escalation. Therefore, the market continues to use every opportunity to sell the dollar. This will continue until the market sees real signs of the trade war ending.
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair may continue its upward movement, but the macroeconomic background will be strong today. If the data from the U.S. exceeds forecasts, the dollar may strengthen slightly. However, there's no talk of a downtrend at the moment.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade based on the levels: 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3421–1.3443, 1.3518, 1.3580–1.3592, 1.3652–1.3660, 1.3695. No important events are scheduled for Friday in the UK, but extremely important reports like NonFarm Payrolls and the U.S. unemployment rate will be published in the U.S. These data can trigger a significant spike in volatility.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it is formed (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more false signals are generated around the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of flat conditions, it's better to stop trading.
- Trading positions should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; afterward, all trades should be closed manually.
- On the hourly timeframe, it's better to trade MACD signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
- If two levels are located too close to each other (5 to 20 points apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
- After a 20-point move in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.
What's on the Charts:
- Support and resistance levels — target levels for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
- Red lines — channels or trendlines showing the current trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
- MACD (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also serve as a source of signals.
- Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's recommended to trade with extreme caution or exit the market during these events to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding trend.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are key to long-term success in trading.
