Turbulence has hit the oil market and optimism is waning. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have downgraded their crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing mounting concerns over weakening global demand caused by escalating trade wars and rising supply from OPEC+ nations.
According to Goldman's currency strategists, two key factors that had previously helped stabilize prices are now fading: the low probability of a recession and OPEC+'s willingness to limit production when Brent trades near $70 per barrel. These constraints are no longer in effect, the bank believes.
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude this year by 5.5% to $69 per barrel. The estimate for US benchmark WTI was trimmed by 4.3% to $66. Looking further ahead, the 2026 average Brent price forecast was slashed by 9% to $62, while WTI was cut by 6.3% to $59.
Moreover, these forecasts could be further downgraded, particularly for 2026, amid growing recession risks, Goldman analysts warned.
