FX.co ★ Wheat Drops to 1-Month Low

Wheat futures declined to approximately $5.20 per bushel, reaching a one-month low due to an increase in supply and a decrease in restocking activities, eliminating the scarcity that had bolstered prices earlier this month. The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicated a record-high global production and ending stocks, thereby enhancing the availability of wheat for export. In addition, Kyiv announced it would not reinstate export restrictions for the 2025/26 season following a larger harvest and sluggish early-season shipments, allowing for more significant Black Sea exports. Meanwhile, Argentina has adjusted its crop forecasts to near-record levels, while Russian exports continue to remain competitive and stable, collectively expanding supply in major buying regions and decreasing the urgency for importers. Purchasers have reduced their forward contracts, and a weaker dollar has further reduced import costs, prompting importers to seek more affordable domestic options rather than replenishing stocks. Weather-related risks persist in certain regions of the United States and Argentina, but have yet to result in any substantial crop losses, leaving the market well-supplied in the near term.