FX.co ★ Oil Attempts Small Recovery

WTI crude oil futures increased to approximately $58.5 per barrel on Monday, following a 3.4% decline last week, as investors evaluated the potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Negotiations, facilitated by the United States, have shown some progress, though significant issues related to territory and sovereignty remain unresolved. President Trump suggested that the developments could be promising, while President Zelenskiy described the negotiations as a pivotal moment. Should an agreement be reached, it may result in the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, potentially adding more supply to a market already anticipated to experience a substantial surplus next year. In the meantime, the likelihood of a US interest rate reduction next month increased due to recent statements from Fed Governor Waller today and the New York Fed president last Friday. WTI has decreased over 4% this month and is on course for its fourth consecutive monthly decline, marking its longest downtrend since 2023.